Is the Bullpen Really to Blame?

Chris Johnson is sucking at more than just hitting.

A game recap against the Mets is kinda pointless, as I didn't get to watch the game in the first place, and frankly it was another typical loss in which an Astros starter gave up 7 ER. Instead, I wanted to offer something based on stats, something I've been pondering for awhile. For fun, a quick series preview against the Braves finishes this post up.

My quandary is this: is the Astros bullpen really that bad? The easy answer would be yes, as Houston relievers are the worst in the National League and second-worst in the majors (trailing only Detroit) in terms of ERA, sporting a ghastly 5.25. However, with a deeper look at the numbers, something else is a bit more telling as to why the 'pen is giving up so many runs. The culprit is team defense. According to Fangraphs, the Astros' relievers FIP (that is, Fielding Independent Pitching, basically a statistic that attempts to measure a pitcher's effectiveness minus luck and the defense behind him, meant to be a more pure indication of the pitcher's value) is 4.10, nearly a run and a half better than their collective ERA. That number is not stellar, but it is still better than the relief corps' in Philadelphia, Detroit, both teams in Los Angeles, Minnesota, and Baltimore. Obviously, in a perfect world a pitcher's ERA would be the same as his FIP, assuming that the defense behind makes all or nearly all the right moves on balls put in play. Anyone who's been watching the Astros this year knows that the guys in the field are not doing that.

Houston has the second-worst fielding percentage in the majors (.978), and that's only one thousandth of a percentage point better than the Texas Rangers' percentage. The Astros have committed 32 errors in 40 games, second only to the Rangers' 34. Houston is also dead last with a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, an advanced fielding metric that I have no shot at explaining) of -18.1. Chris Johnson and Angel Sanchez are two of the main culprits, with 6 errors each.

So I ask you, with what looks like the worst defense in the majors, who's to blame? Is it the bullpen's fault? Is it the defense? Either way, it's going to take vast improvement on both ends for the Astros to start making any headway. 

Mini-series preview: Houston Astros (15-25) vs. Atlanta Braves (23-19)- May 16th and 17th, Turner Field

Game 1:

6:10 pm- Brett Myers (1-3, 5.01 ERA) vs. Tommy Hanson (4-3, 2.51 ERA)

Game 2:

12:05 pm- Wandy Rodriguez (2-3, 3.98 ERA) vs. Derek Lowe (3-3, 3.73 ERA)

With the Astros coming off four consecutive series losses, fans should be glad that this is only a two-game stint in Atlanta. The Braves are a club with the complete package: ripe with young power hitters, infielders who can hit for average and make great plays, pitchers who throw hard and compete harder. It looks rather bleak, but at least the 'Stros have the top of their rotation pitching. Not that Myers has been very comforting lately on the mound.

Prediction: A two-game sweep is very possible, but I'll say that Wandy wins his start against Lowe. The second game will actually be a very good matchup of pitchers, as both guys have pretty similar numbers, all things considered. If W-Rod stays hot, then the Astros will at least be able to keep from getting swept again. However, I'm not so sure that Myers has everything figured out yet, and with Hanson being as good a pitcher as he is, the first game could get ugly.