The Astros were able to pull of their first home sweep of the year on Wednesday night, as J.A. Happ and his mates handily shut out the Pirates 2-0. Using a new format that we shamelessly stole from our friends over at View from the Bleachers, let's take a peek at the good, the bad, and the analysis.
What went right
- Happ showed that his time in Oklahoma City was well-spent, as he threw 7 strong innings on 110 pitches, allowing just 3 hits and one walk, no runs and 6 strikeouts. He effectively mixed up his pitches, and more importantly, he hit his spots and changed locations with ease. Happ started the game by striking out guys, and ended the outing by getting them to fly out. When all your pitches are working and are being thrown to the right place, you'll get outs in a variety of ways.
- Fernando Rodriguez and Mark Melancon were able to close the door on the Buccos in the 8th and 9th. Rodriguez didn't have to throw many pitches, as Josh Harrison quickly bunted to get on, but was later erased by an ugly-looking 6-4-3 double play. Melancon struck out Ryan Doumit to end the game, bringing the Pirates' total strikeout number to 34 in the three-game series. No Pittsburgh player reached second base in the contest.
- The 'Stros were able to capitalize on the Pirates' mistakes in the 4th inning (none of which were the fault of Pittsburgh starter James McDonald), providing the only two runs of the game. Jimmy Paredes walked and advanced to third after an Angel Sanchez single. Humberto Quintero topped a grounder to Doumit, who threw him out at first. Paredes, noticing that no one was covering the dish, raced home, slid in safely, and induced a wild throw from Pittsburgh first baseman Garrett Jones, allowing Sanchez to get all the way to third. After Happ walked, Jordan Schafer laid down a drag bunt to score Sanchez.
What went wrong
- Honestly, nothing. I didn't necessarily agree with Brad Mills' move to pull out Happ (I thought he could have gone one more inning, though I've been accused of buying too much into the Nolan Ryan 120-pitches-or-more philosophy). All's well that ends well though, and Mills looked pretty smart after Rodriguez pitched a quick little inning with no damage.
What we learned
- Happ still has the potential to be a mainstay in this rotation. I know, I know, some of you will accuse me of taking too much from just one start, but let's face it, the guy has talent. He's pitched 13 innings in his last two starts, and allowed just one earned run. He's got a decent curveball, and if he's able to mix his pitches and locations as effectively as he did tonight, he'll surely be in the middle of the rotation in 2012.
- The small-ball mentality will probably have to carry into next season if the Astros want to win any games. Everyone and their mom knows that this team doesn't have power, but does have a lot of speed. If Mills and Co. can teach the kids to bunt, the strategy could be to load everybody up for J.D. Martinez, and let him swing away. Ozzie Guillen has been preaching the little things to his guys in Chicago for years now, so if he get's fired...anyone up for him skippering the club?
The Astros open a three-game set against the Brewers tomorrow at Minute Maid Park. God bless us, every one.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Game 136: Astros 8, Pirates 2
Maybe that future is looking bright after all.
A gaggle of young players helped lead the Astros to their third straight victory on Tuesday night, as the team dismantled Pittsburgh 8-2. Behind a 6-run 6th inning and yet another strong showing by Henry Sosa, the club was easily able to coast to the victory. Here's what I observed from a feel-good win:
1. Sosa might surprise a few people come 2012.
I originally thought that Jason Stoffel would be the key piece in the Jeff Keppinger-to-San Francisco trade, but boy was I wrong. Sosa came out firing to win his second straight start, going 6 strong innings, allowing just 2 hits and one ER while striking out 7 and walking just one batter. He threw first-pitch strikes to 13 of the 21 batters he faced, and mixed his pitches well enough to keep the undisciplined Pirates guessing. (For those who were wondering, they're struck out 27 times in the first two games of this series). Odd to think that this guy might be in the back end of the starting rotation come 2012, but that's the beautiful nature of
baseball-one team gives you a chance and you run with it.
2. Carlos Lee either can't hit curveballs, or he has a serious problem with his depth perception.
I've been seeing this all year long, and don't get me wrong, I'm actually rather pleased with El Caballo at the moment, what with his 11-game hit streak and 1.360 OPS during said streak. However, I can't help but notice how easily his knees go noodly whenever somebody throws him a bender. Back door, front door, inside, outside, low, high, it doesn't matter. Lee will not swing. He bends his knees, sometimes moves out of the way, and almost every time it's a called strike. He thens looks back at the umpire in disgust. Dude, it's just a curveball. If you've been in the league this long and still can't accurately recognize a breaking ball pretty quickly, you're in deep trouble. (To be fair, Charlie Morton's arm slot is a little weird and all, but c'mon).
3. I keep oscillating back and forth as to whether J.D. Martinez is the real deal or not.
Martinez set an Astros rookie record yesterday by driving in his 28th run in August. That's also third all-time by an NL rookie in the month. There's no doubt that Martinez has the ability to hit at the major league level, but will he be able to harness it? Even I can notice that the guy has a really, really funky swing, and while sometimes that's not a bad thing (see Bagwell, Jeff), if pitchers are able to make an adjustment that screws up his timing, he might be dead in the water. The red flag that's been mentioned by just about everyone is the awkward stutter step that he takes as the pitcher is delivering the ball. Will he be able to work through the odd mechanical problems and purify his swing? Does he need to? Interestingly, Martinez describes his batting stance as a combination of Magglio Ordonez and Albert Pujols. If the guy ends up being able to hit like either of them, I'll be pleased as punch.
J.A. Happ takes on James McDonald tonight for the series finale at 7:05. Get your brooms ready.
A gaggle of young players helped lead the Astros to their third straight victory on Tuesday night, as the team dismantled Pittsburgh 8-2. Behind a 6-run 6th inning and yet another strong showing by Henry Sosa, the club was easily able to coast to the victory. Here's what I observed from a feel-good win:
1. Sosa might surprise a few people come 2012.
I originally thought that Jason Stoffel would be the key piece in the Jeff Keppinger-to-San Francisco trade, but boy was I wrong. Sosa came out firing to win his second straight start, going 6 strong innings, allowing just 2 hits and one ER while striking out 7 and walking just one batter. He threw first-pitch strikes to 13 of the 21 batters he faced, and mixed his pitches well enough to keep the undisciplined Pirates guessing. (For those who were wondering, they're struck out 27 times in the first two games of this series). Odd to think that this guy might be in the back end of the starting rotation come 2012, but that's the beautiful nature of
baseball-one team gives you a chance and you run with it.
2. Carlos Lee either can't hit curveballs, or he has a serious problem with his depth perception.
I've been seeing this all year long, and don't get me wrong, I'm actually rather pleased with El Caballo at the moment, what with his 11-game hit streak and 1.360 OPS during said streak. However, I can't help but notice how easily his knees go noodly whenever somebody throws him a bender. Back door, front door, inside, outside, low, high, it doesn't matter. Lee will not swing. He bends his knees, sometimes moves out of the way, and almost every time it's a called strike. He thens looks back at the umpire in disgust. Dude, it's just a curveball. If you've been in the league this long and still can't accurately recognize a breaking ball pretty quickly, you're in deep trouble. (To be fair, Charlie Morton's arm slot is a little weird and all, but c'mon).
3. I keep oscillating back and forth as to whether J.D. Martinez is the real deal or not.
Martinez set an Astros rookie record yesterday by driving in his 28th run in August. That's also third all-time by an NL rookie in the month. There's no doubt that Martinez has the ability to hit at the major league level, but will he be able to harness it? Even I can notice that the guy has a really, really funky swing, and while sometimes that's not a bad thing (see Bagwell, Jeff), if pitchers are able to make an adjustment that screws up his timing, he might be dead in the water. The red flag that's been mentioned by just about everyone is the awkward stutter step that he takes as the pitcher is delivering the ball. Will he be able to work through the odd mechanical problems and purify his swing? Does he need to? Interestingly, Martinez describes his batting stance as a combination of Magglio Ordonez and Albert Pujols. If the guy ends up being able to hit like either of them, I'll be pleased as punch.
J.A. Happ takes on James McDonald tonight for the series finale at 7:05. Get your brooms ready.
Astros in the Arizona Fall League
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| Jason Castro headlines the group of players headed to the AZFL. |
The great Zach Levine announced the Astros (and mostly minor league farmhands) who will be honing their game for the mighty Salt River Rafters in Arizona this autumn. Without further ado, here they are:
Jay Austin
Jason Castro
Jake Goebbert
Chris Hicks
Kody Hinze
Dallas Keuchel
Jason Stoffel
Josh Zeid
Man, that's a lot of J's.
I don't pay enough attention to the Astros' minor league system, but I can tell you this much: each of these fellas should greatly benefit from extra playing time out west. Castro- who's missed the entire major league season so far and is just now catching bullpens and taking BP- will undoubtedly want to get work in. Everyone knows that he was supposed to be the heir apparent behind the plate in Houston, and with the horror that has been Humberto Quintero and Carlos Corporan this season, fans everywhere should be happy that Castro is getting back into the crouch and preparing for 2012.
As for the other prospects on the list, I'm most interested in seeing what Hinze, Keuchel, and Zeid do in AZ. Hinze, a burly 1B from nearby Nimitz High, has been showing promise in Corpus Christi with a .297/.375/.451 line on the year, complete with 7 HR and 26 RBI in just 49 games. He was scrutinized more than the average Astros' prospect coming out of high school, simply because he was so close in proximity to the team. Keuchel was a seventh-round choice in '09 out of the University of Arkansas, where he acted as the staff ace. Splitting time between Corpus and Oklahoma City this year, he's 9-8 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Trust me, his stuff is better than his numbers indicate. Lastly, Zeid was the PTBNL in the Hunter Pence trade, and man, is the dude gigantic at 6'5" and 210 pounds. Another stuff-over-numbers minor leaguer, Zeid is just 2-4 on the year with a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, though he's only pitched 76 innings between Reading and Corpus.
All in all, the Arizona Fall League is a much safer place to send players in the offseason, as the winter leagues in the Caribbean are quite competitive, and team executives don't have near as much control of the players they send there. The AZFL is strictly a developmental league, one that better observes such things as innings limits and the like.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Game 135: Astros 7, Pirates 4
"Weird" would be the one word I'd use to describe the game against the Pirates on Monday night at Minute Maid Park. Wandy Rodriguez K'd a career-high 13 batters and earned a win, despite turning into Woody Williams in the fourth inning and allowing a million straight extra base hits, subsequently giving up 3 ER. Quick hits on what I saw:
1. Wandy might just be a bonafide hurler.
People keep telling me that the Astros should deal W-Rod to the Yankees or Red Sox. I keep replying that that proposition is ridiculous, as simply, Wandy's ilk doesn't translate to the AL East. He's a contact pitcher, and any sort of contact pitcher who can't throw 90 mph is doomed against the rest of the division. However, I'm starting to think that Rodriguez is just crafty enough to miss bats, no matter where he goes. He's always had a much better home ERA than road, but that might just be a comfort factor over a ballpark factor, as Minute Maid is essentially a neutral park in terms of favoring hitters or pitchers. Do I think Wandy could have worked in Denver? Probably not. Is he a decent #3 or #4 in the Bronx or Boston? Maybe so.
2. Brian Bogusevic is either on a serious hot streak, or has finally figured something out.
I've decried Bogusevic every single day on this blog, but even I can't deny that the dude is hitting now. In fact, post All-Star break, Bogusevic has a Bonds-esque OPS of 1.110. Last night, he went 2 for 4, roping two doubles and driving in the first run of the night. Look, I'm still not totally bought into the hype, but the guy is starting to grow on me, and hey, what fans in Toronto predicted that Jose Bautista had finally figured things out last season? Now he's an MVP candidate. I certainly don't think Bogusevic is that good, but if he's fixed something mechanically, or has changed his approach, I'll start believing. Right now, as one of the readers posted, he's projecting to be a lefty Jason Lane. Could he be better? That's yet to be seen.
3. Jordan Schafer probably deserves the CF spot over Jason Bourgeois.
I really hate to admit it, but it's true. Bourgeois has been mired in an extended slump (3 for his last 20), and he hasn't been showing the superior glovework or baserunning ability that he did at the beginning of the season, when everyone (myself included) was calling for him to take over in left field. Now that an outfield spot is essentially up for grabs, Bourgeois isn't performing. Schafer, on the other hand, has come off the DL running, collecting nine hits, a homer, four RBIs and three stolen bases in his first eight games with the team. He's fast, plays good defense, and has the ability to spray hits. If these trends continue, Schafer will undoubtedly be the starting centerfielder in 2012, and deservedly so.
Tonight, you just might see a running diary. Excited? I am too. Charlie Morton faces Henry Sosa tonight at 7:05.
1. Wandy might just be a bonafide hurler.
People keep telling me that the Astros should deal W-Rod to the Yankees or Red Sox. I keep replying that that proposition is ridiculous, as simply, Wandy's ilk doesn't translate to the AL East. He's a contact pitcher, and any sort of contact pitcher who can't throw 90 mph is doomed against the rest of the division. However, I'm starting to think that Rodriguez is just crafty enough to miss bats, no matter where he goes. He's always had a much better home ERA than road, but that might just be a comfort factor over a ballpark factor, as Minute Maid is essentially a neutral park in terms of favoring hitters or pitchers. Do I think Wandy could have worked in Denver? Probably not. Is he a decent #3 or #4 in the Bronx or Boston? Maybe so.
2. Brian Bogusevic is either on a serious hot streak, or has finally figured something out.
I've decried Bogusevic every single day on this blog, but even I can't deny that the dude is hitting now. In fact, post All-Star break, Bogusevic has a Bonds-esque OPS of 1.110. Last night, he went 2 for 4, roping two doubles and driving in the first run of the night. Look, I'm still not totally bought into the hype, but the guy is starting to grow on me, and hey, what fans in Toronto predicted that Jose Bautista had finally figured things out last season? Now he's an MVP candidate. I certainly don't think Bogusevic is that good, but if he's fixed something mechanically, or has changed his approach, I'll start believing. Right now, as one of the readers posted, he's projecting to be a lefty Jason Lane. Could he be better? That's yet to be seen.
3. Jordan Schafer probably deserves the CF spot over Jason Bourgeois.
I really hate to admit it, but it's true. Bourgeois has been mired in an extended slump (3 for his last 20), and he hasn't been showing the superior glovework or baserunning ability that he did at the beginning of the season, when everyone (myself included) was calling for him to take over in left field. Now that an outfield spot is essentially up for grabs, Bourgeois isn't performing. Schafer, on the other hand, has come off the DL running, collecting nine hits, a homer, four RBIs and three stolen bases in his first eight games with the team. He's fast, plays good defense, and has the ability to spray hits. If these trends continue, Schafer will undoubtedly be the starting centerfielder in 2012, and deservedly so.
Tonight, you just might see a running diary. Excited? I am too. Charlie Morton faces Henry Sosa tonight at 7:05.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Series Previes: A Pirate's Life for Them, Not for Me
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| I'd cheer for the Pirates if they still used this logo. |
Houston Astros (44-90) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-71), August 29-31, Minute Maid Park
Game 1:
7:05 pm, Wandy Rodriguez (9-9, 3.41) vs. Ross Ohlendorf (0-1, 7.24)
Game 2:
7:05 pm, Henry Sosa (1-2, 5.09) vs. Charlie Morton (9-7, 3.63)
Game 3:
J.A. Happ (4-15, 6.03) vs. James McDonald (8-6, 4.22)
Well well, if this isn't the clash of the titans. Ohlendorf comes off a lengthy stay on the DL due to a shoulder injury. Wandy will likely be able to calm down a little bit on the bump, as he won't have to wonder if he's going to be dealt in the middle of the game to the opposing team. The surprise stay in the Houston rotation, Sosa, goes against what was laughably thought to be an NL Cy Young contender earlier in the year in Morton. In the finale, The Happless Wonder takes on the feast or famine McDonald, who's been all feast against the Astros this season. I think it's safe to say this series won't be a ratings success.
PREDICTION: I really see this as a coin toss, but I'll just pretend to be a happy baseball fan and say the Astros win two out of three, taking the first to games in the contest. Rodriguez and Sosa pitch well, while Happ gets shelled. What's new?
Friday, August 26, 2011
Game 131: Astros 3, Giants 1
It was a sweetly ironic Thursday night in the City by the Bay. The lowly Astros rode the arm of Henry Sosa, a former Giants prospect that came over in the Jeff Keppinger trade, and beat the defending champs in San Francisco 3-1.
In typical Astros fashion, after taking 2 of 3 from the Gigantes just last week, the club got handily swept in Colorado, a series that was filled with lots of AAA stuff, like Wesley Wright playing the outfield and Aneury Rodriguez giving up the walk-off...run...on a wild pitch. Needless to say, I wasn't exactly confident that the 'Stros would come out swinging in this one, but behind Sosa's masterful first major league win, they eked out just enough runs to secure the victory.
Sosa's performance can't really be overstated here. While it's true that he allowed the leadoff hitter on in five consecutive frames, the dude was pitching on three days rest. Walks are gonna happen. What didn't happen for the Giants was hits, as Sosa only gave up four of them--all singles. He rode his fastball and excellent slider for the entire night, locking hitters up and sawing left-handed bats off. Indeed, his final line of 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO is superb, particularly for a younger guy pitching against his former team on three days rest. Sheesh.
The Astros' bats were terrible (1-12) with RISP, but J.D. Martinez and newcomer Jordan Schafer were able to carry the load offensively. Martinez doubled Schafer in for the first run of the game in the first, and later scored him again with a sacrifice fly in the third. Schafer completed the Astros' scoring with a line drive homer to right, just his second dinger of the season. I'll tell ya, I wasn't exactly high on Schafer when he came over in the Michael Bourn trade, but I'm starting to think that's mostly because we were trading Michael Bourn. For similar reasons, I think I'm resisting liking Schafer because...he's not Michael Bourn. But the guy is quite fast, he plays decent center field, and he apparently can hit a little too. If Mills (or whoever's managing in 2012) plans on keeping him in the leadoff spot, all that's there to worry about is a nice OBP. Schafer's career number is .313, but ya know, there's always hope.
A win's a win, so I'll take it. Happless throws tonight against Madison Bumgarner at 9:15 Houston time. Any predictions on how many runs he'll give up?
In typical Astros fashion, after taking 2 of 3 from the Gigantes just last week, the club got handily swept in Colorado, a series that was filled with lots of AAA stuff, like Wesley Wright playing the outfield and Aneury Rodriguez giving up the walk-off...run...on a wild pitch. Needless to say, I wasn't exactly confident that the 'Stros would come out swinging in this one, but behind Sosa's masterful first major league win, they eked out just enough runs to secure the victory.
Sosa's performance can't really be overstated here. While it's true that he allowed the leadoff hitter on in five consecutive frames, the dude was pitching on three days rest. Walks are gonna happen. What didn't happen for the Giants was hits, as Sosa only gave up four of them--all singles. He rode his fastball and excellent slider for the entire night, locking hitters up and sawing left-handed bats off. Indeed, his final line of 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO is superb, particularly for a younger guy pitching against his former team on three days rest. Sheesh.
The Astros' bats were terrible (1-12) with RISP, but J.D. Martinez and newcomer Jordan Schafer were able to carry the load offensively. Martinez doubled Schafer in for the first run of the game in the first, and later scored him again with a sacrifice fly in the third. Schafer completed the Astros' scoring with a line drive homer to right, just his second dinger of the season. I'll tell ya, I wasn't exactly high on Schafer when he came over in the Michael Bourn trade, but I'm starting to think that's mostly because we were trading Michael Bourn. For similar reasons, I think I'm resisting liking Schafer because...he's not Michael Bourn. But the guy is quite fast, he plays decent center field, and he apparently can hit a little too. If Mills (or whoever's managing in 2012) plans on keeping him in the leadoff spot, all that's there to worry about is a nice OBP. Schafer's career number is .313, but ya know, there's always hope.
A win's a win, so I'll take it. Happless throws tonight against Madison Bumgarner at 9:15 Houston time. Any predictions on how many runs he'll give up?
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Has Bud Norris Improved?
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| Bud Norris gave up 4 ER Tuesday in Denver. |
I calmly explained to said follower that I prefer looking at numbers to eyeballing players when determining their level of talent, or in this case, improvement. A look at Norris' statistics show strikingly similar seasons from 2010 to 2011:
2010: 153.2 IP, 9-10, 4.92 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 9.25 K/9, 4.51 BB/9, 43.0 GB%, 1.6 WAR
2011: 157 IP, 6-8, 3.73 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 8.66 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 39.7 GB%, 1.5 WAR
It's a tough job analyzing two stat lines that look so similar, but with a cursory glance at them, I slowly began to agree with my astute Twitter follower, though he probably didn't know the numbers behind the man at the time (which is alright, because I didn't either until I looked them up). Norris has already pitched more innings this season than he did in all of 2010, so his current skid could very possibly be due to the spike in innings that he's experiencing. The man's arm isn't invincible. With five or six starts left, it's unlikely that Norris will match his win total from last year, but you never know. In terms of his ERA/FIP discrepancy, Norris might be the only Houston starter to be unaffected (or maybe just affected less) by the atrocious defense behind him, as his '11 FIP is actually higher than his ERA. (Sidenote: There's also a bit of trickery to the stat, as all the unearned runs charged to Bud are not indicated in his ERA, thereby still making him a victim of bad defense). That doesn't worry me though, as it's still down from 2010's figure, and essentially being on the downslope of any runs allowed type of stat is a good thing.
Norris' strikeout rate is down, and while that could be a considered a bad trend, anyone who's been watching him this season has surely noticed at least a small change in his approach to opposing batters. In 2010, I had the feeling that Norris wanted to be the second coming of Dwight Gooden, as he seemed to be constantly attempting to miss bats and strike out hitters with his power pitch, the fastball. This year, he's used his changeup and slider more consistently, and seems to be more focused on getting outs than getting strikeouts. Curiously, his groundball rate has dropped even with that philosophy change. Truly, his GB% drop is the only stat that has me worried.
In terms of consistency, this is ironically the only facet that I think Norris' game lacks. If we take a look at his game log from the 2011 season, a noticeable trend is a string of electric starts followed by a string of 4 or 5 earned in three straight starts. The only seemingly consistent part of Norris' game is that he gives up hits in droves (he's served up less than five in just five starts this year). In essence, the consistency argument lacks substance.
At the end of writing this, I still can't decide if Bud Norris has truly improved this year. The numbers say one thing, the eyes say another. All in all, it won't matter come 2012, as he will be counted on to be the anchor of the Astros' staff, particularly if Wandy Rodriguez is gone.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
5 Reasons to Keep Watching the Astros
I love lists, and the only thing that supplants my love for lists is my love for the SweetSpot blog. So, I decided to copy its chief, David Schoenfield, and construct a list of reasons to keep watching the Houston Astros. In brutal honesty, even I couldn't think of 10 reasons to continue following this horrid club, but I was able to list five. If you can think of more, post 'em.
1. Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez
Yes, I'm sure you thought the first reason I'd list would be "the young guys". But it's really the last hope we sorry Astros fans have. Truly though, there seems to be a serious future in store for the young second baseman and left fielder. Altuve has so far posted an exciting triple slash line of .317/.331/.400, a .321 wOBA and a wRC+ of 102. He's a contact hitter, doubles machine, and possessor of more pop than I thought possible for such a tiny guy. He isn't the rangiest 2B out there, but that's to be expected with his height. Martinez is also putting up nice numbers, with a line of .298/.344/.571, a WAR of 1.1, and a solid .388 wOBA. His defense is certainly questionable, but he'll learn soon enough. I expect both of these guys to contribute in September, and be on the Opening Day lineup card in April 2012.
2. The Brad Mills/Ed Wade saga
Don't you wanna see them get fired? It is the humble opinion of this writer that if (and apparently now, that's a big if) the sale of the club to Jim Crane goes through, Mills and Wade will be packing their bags. Personnel drama is always fun, and Houston fans everywhere will probably strike up a celebratory parade once these two meatheads are gone. Yes, yes it's a tough hand to be dealt in this team, but neither Mills nor Wade have shown that they know how to execute their jobs well (see Michael Bourn trade to Atlanta, laughable double switch tactics), and frankly, both deserve to be shown the door. Anyway, isn't it great to watch the nightly Mills logic comedy? (Can't wait for the day that #Millslogic is trending on Twitter).
3. Playing spoiler
For a second there, I thought that the 'Stros might have killed off the Giants hopes of returning to the playoffs when they took two out of three from them last weekend. Alas, it wasn't so, as the Baby Snakes out west continued to struggle as well, making for a tiny one game difference between them and San Francisco. However, Houston travels to northern California to play four games against Los Gigantes this week. They also get sets against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and St. Louis in September. On one hand, it won't be very fun to play a bunch of good teams, but who doesn't love preventing a club from making the playoffs? Especially if it's the Cards...
4. The chase for the bottom
Ok, maybe this is a really sad and sick reason, but I find it pretty intriguing that the Astros will in all likelihood finish with the worst record in MLB in 2011. There's always a positive side, seeing as the team will get the #1 draft pick in 2012. While experts contend that the upcoming draft won't exactly be stocked with big-name talent (a la 2011), there's still an assurance that whoever the best prospect in college or high school is come June, he'll be an Astro...if he's not traded for a veteran middle infielder. And if he's not a pitcher. And if he actually signs.
5. September football is inconsequential
C'mon now. It's not like you can really tell anything about your favorite NFL team after 3 games.
1. Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez
Yes, I'm sure you thought the first reason I'd list would be "the young guys". But it's really the last hope we sorry Astros fans have. Truly though, there seems to be a serious future in store for the young second baseman and left fielder. Altuve has so far posted an exciting triple slash line of .317/.331/.400, a .321 wOBA and a wRC+ of 102. He's a contact hitter, doubles machine, and possessor of more pop than I thought possible for such a tiny guy. He isn't the rangiest 2B out there, but that's to be expected with his height. Martinez is also putting up nice numbers, with a line of .298/.344/.571, a WAR of 1.1, and a solid .388 wOBA. His defense is certainly questionable, but he'll learn soon enough. I expect both of these guys to contribute in September, and be on the Opening Day lineup card in April 2012.
2. The Brad Mills/Ed Wade saga
Don't you wanna see them get fired? It is the humble opinion of this writer that if (and apparently now, that's a big if) the sale of the club to Jim Crane goes through, Mills and Wade will be packing their bags. Personnel drama is always fun, and Houston fans everywhere will probably strike up a celebratory parade once these two meatheads are gone. Yes, yes it's a tough hand to be dealt in this team, but neither Mills nor Wade have shown that they know how to execute their jobs well (see Michael Bourn trade to Atlanta, laughable double switch tactics), and frankly, both deserve to be shown the door. Anyway, isn't it great to watch the nightly Mills logic comedy? (Can't wait for the day that #Millslogic is trending on Twitter).
3. Playing spoiler
For a second there, I thought that the 'Stros might have killed off the Giants hopes of returning to the playoffs when they took two out of three from them last weekend. Alas, it wasn't so, as the Baby Snakes out west continued to struggle as well, making for a tiny one game difference between them and San Francisco. However, Houston travels to northern California to play four games against Los Gigantes this week. They also get sets against Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and St. Louis in September. On one hand, it won't be very fun to play a bunch of good teams, but who doesn't love preventing a club from making the playoffs? Especially if it's the Cards...
4. The chase for the bottom
Ok, maybe this is a really sad and sick reason, but I find it pretty intriguing that the Astros will in all likelihood finish with the worst record in MLB in 2011. There's always a positive side, seeing as the team will get the #1 draft pick in 2012. While experts contend that the upcoming draft won't exactly be stocked with big-name talent (a la 2011), there's still an assurance that whoever the best prospect in college or high school is come June, he'll be an Astro...if he's not traded for a veteran middle infielder. And if he's not a pitcher. And if he actually signs.
5. September football is inconsequential
C'mon now. It's not like you can really tell anything about your favorite NFL team after 3 games.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Series Preview: Los Gigantes
The Houston Astros won the series against the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday. Yes, that's right, the Astros WON a series, and not just in typical fashion either (see Brian Bogusevic's walk-off grand slam...and for those of you who plan on ripping me and saying that I was wrong all along and Bogusevic should be starting long-term or something, just don't. You're still wrong.) Anyways, here you have it:
Houston Astros (40-84) vs. San Francisco Giants (67-58): August 19-21, Minute Maid Park
Game 1:
7:05 pm- Wandy Rodriguez (8-9, 3.50) vs. Ryan Vogelsong (10-2, 2.47)
Game 2:
Jordan Lyles (1-7, 5.31) vs. Madison Bumgarner (7-11, 3.49)
Game 3:
Henry Sosa (0-2, 6.00) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4-7, 4.26)
Surprisingly, in a series that, on paper, looks completely lopsided, this three-game set between the Astros and Giants actually has several levels of intrigue. The first game pits Houston's staff ace against the comeback kid of the year in Vogelsong. The Astros never had any problem solving Vogelsong during his Pittsburgh days, but the way he's been pitching this season, no guarantees may be drawn at all. Game two features two of the most highly-touted young pitchers in the game in Lyles and Bumgarner. Bumgarner hasn't really delivered on his high ceiling, but neither has Lyles. Both are feast or famine hurlers, so expect that contest to either be a complete pitcher's duel or a game of softball. Lastly, Sosa takes on his former club in the series finale against the oft-injured Sanchez, who I still think might not start. The Giants have to be at least a little surprised that Sosa a) has done this well so far and b) is pitching against them in the big leagues...already.
PREDICTION: I'll say the 'Stros win one of three, with Rodriguez being able to outdo Vogelsong in game one. The Giants are in desperation mode now with Arizona slowly taking control of the NL West, and a team that's playing for its collective playoff life is never one to mess with. The Astros benefit from being able to miss Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, but it's no secret that Vogelsong, Bumgarner, and Sanchez are pretty competent hurlers too. Lyles has been shelled his last two starts, and while the Giants don't exactly wield a big stick, I still think he gets knocked around. Sosa has the chance to do alright, but he needs to solve his first inning jitters.
Houston Astros (40-84) vs. San Francisco Giants (67-58): August 19-21, Minute Maid Park
Game 1:
7:05 pm- Wandy Rodriguez (8-9, 3.50) vs. Ryan Vogelsong (10-2, 2.47)
Game 2:
Jordan Lyles (1-7, 5.31) vs. Madison Bumgarner (7-11, 3.49)
Game 3:
Henry Sosa (0-2, 6.00) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4-7, 4.26)
Surprisingly, in a series that, on paper, looks completely lopsided, this three-game set between the Astros and Giants actually has several levels of intrigue. The first game pits Houston's staff ace against the comeback kid of the year in Vogelsong. The Astros never had any problem solving Vogelsong during his Pittsburgh days, but the way he's been pitching this season, no guarantees may be drawn at all. Game two features two of the most highly-touted young pitchers in the game in Lyles and Bumgarner. Bumgarner hasn't really delivered on his high ceiling, but neither has Lyles. Both are feast or famine hurlers, so expect that contest to either be a complete pitcher's duel or a game of softball. Lastly, Sosa takes on his former club in the series finale against the oft-injured Sanchez, who I still think might not start. The Giants have to be at least a little surprised that Sosa a) has done this well so far and b) is pitching against them in the big leagues...already.
PREDICTION: I'll say the 'Stros win one of three, with Rodriguez being able to outdo Vogelsong in game one. The Giants are in desperation mode now with Arizona slowly taking control of the NL West, and a team that's playing for its collective playoff life is never one to mess with. The Astros benefit from being able to miss Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, but it's no secret that Vogelsong, Bumgarner, and Sanchez are pretty competent hurlers too. Lyles has been shelled his last two starts, and while the Giants don't exactly wield a big stick, I still think he gets knocked around. Sosa has the chance to do alright, but he needs to solve his first inning jitters.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Happy friggin' birthday, Brett Myers
He was supposed to be the ace of the staff.Yet today's birthday boy, Brett Myers, turns 31 and is still far from an ace. A fantastic 2010 season aside, the Astros saddled themselves with a pitcher who they inexplicably thought could lead a staff, despite the fact that he relies purely on breaking balls that don't break enough, and really has no fastball to speak of anymore. Maybe I shouldn't lambast him too much. According to Baseball Reference, he is simply an average pitcher, sporting an ERA+ of 99 (100 being the permanent league-average). And after all, it is his birthday.
I guess that's just what you have to expect from the Astros these days--average players asked to fill crucial roles.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Astros sign Springer, Armstrong
Just a quick update for those who haven't heard already:
The Astros were finally able to ink their top picks in 2011, signing UConn outfielder (#13 overall) George Springer to a minor league deal with a bonus reportedly around $2.5 million. The team also convinced 3rd round Vanderbilt pitcher Jack Armstrong to sign a minor league deal, with a bonus of $750,000.
A longer post might or might not come on this later, but these moves were certainly ones that needed to be done. With the rebuilding project set to begin in earnest, the Astros need to focus their attention not on free agent signings, but on draft picks and in-house monitoring. This organization was never exactly known for a superior player development program, but if it hopes to ever become relevant again, Houston must re-stock a barren farm system.
Both Springer and Armstrong will likely report to the Tri-City Valley Cats, and either or both could be at Minute Maid Park as early as July 2013.
 |
| New Astro George Springer may be on the fast track to the big leagues. |
Just a quick update for those who haven't heard already:
The Astros were finally able to ink their top picks in 2011, signing UConn outfielder (#13 overall) George Springer to a minor league deal with a bonus reportedly around $2.5 million. The team also convinced 3rd round Vanderbilt pitcher Jack Armstrong to sign a minor league deal, with a bonus of $750,000.
A longer post might or might not come on this later, but these moves were certainly ones that needed to be done. With the rebuilding project set to begin in earnest, the Astros need to focus their attention not on free agent signings, but on draft picks and in-house monitoring. This organization was never exactly known for a superior player development program, but if it hopes to ever become relevant again, Houston must re-stock a barren farm system.
Both Springer and Armstrong will likely report to the Tri-City Valley Cats, and either or both could be at Minute Maid Park as early as July 2013.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Your 2012 Houston Astros!
So unfortunately, it's been "that time of year" -where fans begin to think of what may happen next year instead of continuing to subject themselves to the mental suffering that comes with following a team as bad as the Houston Astros- for about three months now. While I admit that watching the young infusion of players on the field has been quite entertaining, it's only natural that I submit to you faithful readers what the lineup should look like for the team in 2012. So, I'm assuming that newly minted owner Jim Crane fires current GM Ed Wade and manager Brad Mills, anoints Andrew Friedman as Wade's successor, and hires me to manage the club. Sounds fabulous, eh? Here's my lineup card on Opening Day, 2012:
Jason Bourgeois, CF
Jose Altuve, 2B
J.D. Martinez, RF
Carlos Lee, LF
Clint Barmes, SS
Chris Johnson, 3B
Brett Wallace, 1B
Jason Castro, C
Whoever, P
Let me be clear on a few things here. I would love to get rid of Lee just as much as the next guy, but it's simply implausible to think that any team is going to swallow that whale of a contract. Lee's not very good, but he's not so bad as to justify releasing him and paying the $17 million that he's owed next season. We can get through this together, Astros fans, it's just one more year of him in left field.
I assume that whoever comes in as GM makes it a priority to keep Barmes. Sure, this blog was critical of his signing in the first place, but Barmes offers a bit of veteran leadership that will be sorely needed on a very young 2012 club. Plus, he holds his own at the plate while possessing a flashy glove. Barmes does things the right way, and now with Tommy Manzella gone, the other shortstop prospects on the farm need some more time to develop.
Martinez obviously deserves to be a permanent part of the major league club. Barring a catastrophic collapse in September, he'll have put up absolutely spectacular numbers since his call-up on July 30. I'm not exactly thrilled that he's my #3 hitter so early in his career, but who are you going to put third? He's shown legitimate pop, and no matter how "flat" his swing is, he's performing with it, so who cares? That being said, he'll have to be moved over to right field for the time being, as I'll be a tough lobbier for bringing back Wallace and Johnson, which in effect moves Lee back out to left field. Getting Castro back will be nice, but I haven't seen enough production out of him yet to bat him higher than eighth. Lastly, with the state of flux that the Houston rotation will be in during the offseason, I'll leave it up to the team brass to decide who's going to be the pitcher on April 1, 2012.
That's my idea, what's yours?
Jason Bourgeois, CF
Jose Altuve, 2B
J.D. Martinez, RF
Carlos Lee, LF
Clint Barmes, SS
Chris Johnson, 3B
Brett Wallace, 1B
Jason Castro, C
Whoever, P
Let me be clear on a few things here. I would love to get rid of Lee just as much as the next guy, but it's simply implausible to think that any team is going to swallow that whale of a contract. Lee's not very good, but he's not so bad as to justify releasing him and paying the $17 million that he's owed next season. We can get through this together, Astros fans, it's just one more year of him in left field.
I assume that whoever comes in as GM makes it a priority to keep Barmes. Sure, this blog was critical of his signing in the first place, but Barmes offers a bit of veteran leadership that will be sorely needed on a very young 2012 club. Plus, he holds his own at the plate while possessing a flashy glove. Barmes does things the right way, and now with Tommy Manzella gone, the other shortstop prospects on the farm need some more time to develop.
Martinez obviously deserves to be a permanent part of the major league club. Barring a catastrophic collapse in September, he'll have put up absolutely spectacular numbers since his call-up on July 30. I'm not exactly thrilled that he's my #3 hitter so early in his career, but who are you going to put third? He's shown legitimate pop, and no matter how "flat" his swing is, he's performing with it, so who cares? That being said, he'll have to be moved over to right field for the time being, as I'll be a tough lobbier for bringing back Wallace and Johnson, which in effect moves Lee back out to left field. Getting Castro back will be nice, but I haven't seen enough production out of him yet to bat him higher than eighth. Lastly, with the state of flux that the Houston rotation will be in during the offseason, I'll leave it up to the team brass to decide who's going to be the pitcher on April 1, 2012.
That's my idea, what's yours?
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Running Diary: Astros vs. Diamondbacks (8/10)
I haven't done a running diary yet in 2011, but with a brand new pitcher making his debut for the Astros in Henry Sosa, I decided to pull out the old play-by-play for Wednesday night's contest against Josh Collmenter and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
First inning: Sosa (sheesh, are we sure this isn't Alberto Arias? Or his twin brother?) starts out his major league career by giving up a homer and a double to Willie Bloomquist and Ryan Roberts, respectively. I'm already thinking: Sweet, glad we could call up this guy way too soon. I wanted to say the same thing when the club called up Jordan Lyles at the not-quite-ripe age of 20 in the first half of the season. But see, he had a dazzling debut against the Cubs. So everyone told me to shut up. Pitching coach Doug Brocail visits the mound after just one out. After retiring Chris Young, Sosa gives up a bases-loaded double to Paul Goldschmidt. 3-0 already...this could be a long night.
Second inning: I just found myself wondering why the 'Stros didn't wear their brick red away unis, and then realized that if they had, it would be pretty close to impossible to determine which team was which, as the D-backs had on their own brick red home shirts. Meh. I like the grey roadies better anyway. Having HOUSTON across your chest would be pretty sweet. Brian Bogusevic walks, but that's the extent of the Astros' attack in the top of the frame. Sosa settles down and retires the Arizona hitters 1-2-3.
Third inning: Collmenter is serving up the high meatball tonight, and the Astros hitters are absolutely eating it up. I mean, I knew this guy was a fly ball pitcher, but holy crap this is insane. Meanwhile, Sosa bats with no gloves. He's a pitcher. Raw. I'm afraid, however, that he's the right-handed, Hispanic version of J.A. Happ, the guy he replaced. Consistently falling behind in counts, giving up lots of solid contact, doesn't have any one pitch that's very sexy or useful...
Fourth inning: Sosa walks Collmenter...I'm seeing Happ here people...Bloomquist ends up grounding into a double play, but Sosa is already up over 70 pitches.
Fifth inning: ATTENTION: The no-hitter is over. Bogusevic singles under the glove of Goldschmidt. Jimmy Paredes follows with a rippin' double down the right field line. Barmes falls for the meatball and bloops a single into right that turns into a double, scoring Bogu. Humberto Quintero joins the bloop party, singling to center to score Paredes. Collmenter settles down and retires everybody else. Astros cut the lead to 3-2. In the bottom half, Justin Upton rips a double down the left field line. Anyone who doesn't think this dude should be the NL MVP should just flip on the TV. Sosa channels his inner Nelson Figueroa and serves up an 0-2 down-the-chute fastball to Young, who hammers it over J.D. Martinez's head, scoring Upton. 4-2 Arizona.
Sixth inning: Collmenter retires Martinez for the third time tonight. Sure, the guy has a wacky swing, but up until this contest, he's been killing the ball with 4 dingers in 10 games. We just might be seeing the left fielder of the future, folks. Sosa retires Goldschmidt on three pitches to end the frame. He sure has settled down, and if not for that grounder double by Goldschmidt in the first, this might be a very different game.
Seventh inning: Collmenter looks like he's past that problematic 5th inning, retiring the Houston hitters 1-2-3. He still has the weirdest last name in baseball. I don't like typing it, or looking at it for that matter. Collmenter. It just sounds weird. Meanwhile, Sosa, with a middling final line of 6 IP 6 H 4 ER 4 K 3 BB, is pulled at exactly 100 pitches for troubled reliever Wilton Lopez. While the numbers don't exactly support the notion (he's sporting a 2.92 ERA), I don't think I'm the only one who's a bit disappointed in Lopez's performance this season, especially considering his electrifying appearances that he threw out with regularity in 2010. True to form, Lopez gives up hits to Roberts and Upton (his third of the night...won't be sad about not seeing him anymore). Sheesh. Brad Mills opts for Sergio Escalona, who strikes out Miguel Montero. And since Mills is entertained by by switching relievers every batter, he decides to bring in my least favorite pitcher, Jeff Fulchino. He proceeds to fake Upton off of first, which then results in an errant throw to Barmes at second, allowing the runner from third to score. Sweet. I love a guy who can't pitch and then can't throw to second base. I swear, having an inept defense is the most frustrating thing for a baseball fan to handle. 5-2 D-backs.
Eighth inning: Collmenter is pulled for Bryan Shaw, who I know nothing about, so don't ask any questions. Mills pinches Angel Sanchez for the pitcher. It baffles me that Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson are wasting away at AAA, and Sanchez is not. Give me a break. He of course ground out to second. J.B. Shuck and Jose Altuve both single, and Martinez walks to load the bases for Carlos Lee, who aptly grounds out, but at least not into a double play, so Shuck scores. Bogu sucks as usual, and is retired. 5-3 Arizona. Aneury Rodriguez becomes the fifth Houston pitcher of the night, and gives up a leadoff walk to Kelly Johnson. Should Rodriguez have been the starter tonight? Hard to call, as Sosa basically looked like a clone of Rodriguez through the first 6 frames, posting either a great half-inning or a terrible one, albeit with not near as many strikeouts. Rodriguez reminds me of LaTroy Hawkins, the way he hides the ball behind his right hip when he pitches out of the stretch. Hitters say it was hard to hit Hawkins because of that deceptive move. It doesn't deceive Gerardo Parra however, who's been killing Houston pitchers this year. He triples to the deepest part of the park in center, scoring Johnson easily. That makes it 6-3 Arizona.
Ninth inning: The Astros go down without a whimper against fill-in closer David Hernandez. Final score: Diamondbacks 6, Astros 3.
It could have been worse, but either way the Astros gift-wrapped first place in the NL West to the D-backs. All in all, 'twas an interesting matchup to watch, as it was essentially a microcosm of the club's season this year. 2012 people...2012...
First inning: Sosa (sheesh, are we sure this isn't Alberto Arias? Or his twin brother?) starts out his major league career by giving up a homer and a double to Willie Bloomquist and Ryan Roberts, respectively. I'm already thinking: Sweet, glad we could call up this guy way too soon. I wanted to say the same thing when the club called up Jordan Lyles at the not-quite-ripe age of 20 in the first half of the season. But see, he had a dazzling debut against the Cubs. So everyone told me to shut up. Pitching coach Doug Brocail visits the mound after just one out. After retiring Chris Young, Sosa gives up a bases-loaded double to Paul Goldschmidt. 3-0 already...this could be a long night.
Second inning: I just found myself wondering why the 'Stros didn't wear their brick red away unis, and then realized that if they had, it would be pretty close to impossible to determine which team was which, as the D-backs had on their own brick red home shirts. Meh. I like the grey roadies better anyway. Having HOUSTON across your chest would be pretty sweet. Brian Bogusevic walks, but that's the extent of the Astros' attack in the top of the frame. Sosa settles down and retires the Arizona hitters 1-2-3.
Third inning: Collmenter is serving up the high meatball tonight, and the Astros hitters are absolutely eating it up. I mean, I knew this guy was a fly ball pitcher, but holy crap this is insane. Meanwhile, Sosa bats with no gloves. He's a pitcher. Raw. I'm afraid, however, that he's the right-handed, Hispanic version of J.A. Happ, the guy he replaced. Consistently falling behind in counts, giving up lots of solid contact, doesn't have any one pitch that's very sexy or useful...
Fourth inning: Sosa walks Collmenter...I'm seeing Happ here people...Bloomquist ends up grounding into a double play, but Sosa is already up over 70 pitches.
Fifth inning: ATTENTION: The no-hitter is over. Bogusevic singles under the glove of Goldschmidt. Jimmy Paredes follows with a rippin' double down the right field line. Barmes falls for the meatball and bloops a single into right that turns into a double, scoring Bogu. Humberto Quintero joins the bloop party, singling to center to score Paredes. Collmenter settles down and retires everybody else. Astros cut the lead to 3-2. In the bottom half, Justin Upton rips a double down the left field line. Anyone who doesn't think this dude should be the NL MVP should just flip on the TV. Sosa channels his inner Nelson Figueroa and serves up an 0-2 down-the-chute fastball to Young, who hammers it over J.D. Martinez's head, scoring Upton. 4-2 Arizona.
Sixth inning: Collmenter retires Martinez for the third time tonight. Sure, the guy has a wacky swing, but up until this contest, he's been killing the ball with 4 dingers in 10 games. We just might be seeing the left fielder of the future, folks. Sosa retires Goldschmidt on three pitches to end the frame. He sure has settled down, and if not for that grounder double by Goldschmidt in the first, this might be a very different game.
Seventh inning: Collmenter looks like he's past that problematic 5th inning, retiring the Houston hitters 1-2-3. He still has the weirdest last name in baseball. I don't like typing it, or looking at it for that matter. Collmenter. It just sounds weird. Meanwhile, Sosa, with a middling final line of 6 IP 6 H 4 ER 4 K 3 BB, is pulled at exactly 100 pitches for troubled reliever Wilton Lopez. While the numbers don't exactly support the notion (he's sporting a 2.92 ERA), I don't think I'm the only one who's a bit disappointed in Lopez's performance this season, especially considering his electrifying appearances that he threw out with regularity in 2010. True to form, Lopez gives up hits to Roberts and Upton (his third of the night...won't be sad about not seeing him anymore). Sheesh. Brad Mills opts for Sergio Escalona, who strikes out Miguel Montero. And since Mills is entertained by by switching relievers every batter, he decides to bring in my least favorite pitcher, Jeff Fulchino. He proceeds to fake Upton off of first, which then results in an errant throw to Barmes at second, allowing the runner from third to score. Sweet. I love a guy who can't pitch and then can't throw to second base. I swear, having an inept defense is the most frustrating thing for a baseball fan to handle. 5-2 D-backs.
Eighth inning: Collmenter is pulled for Bryan Shaw, who I know nothing about, so don't ask any questions. Mills pinches Angel Sanchez for the pitcher. It baffles me that Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson are wasting away at AAA, and Sanchez is not. Give me a break. He of course ground out to second. J.B. Shuck and Jose Altuve both single, and Martinez walks to load the bases for Carlos Lee, who aptly grounds out, but at least not into a double play, so Shuck scores. Bogu sucks as usual, and is retired. 5-3 Arizona. Aneury Rodriguez becomes the fifth Houston pitcher of the night, and gives up a leadoff walk to Kelly Johnson. Should Rodriguez have been the starter tonight? Hard to call, as Sosa basically looked like a clone of Rodriguez through the first 6 frames, posting either a great half-inning or a terrible one, albeit with not near as many strikeouts. Rodriguez reminds me of LaTroy Hawkins, the way he hides the ball behind his right hip when he pitches out of the stretch. Hitters say it was hard to hit Hawkins because of that deceptive move. It doesn't deceive Gerardo Parra however, who's been killing Houston pitchers this year. He triples to the deepest part of the park in center, scoring Johnson easily. That makes it 6-3 Arizona.
Ninth inning: The Astros go down without a whimper against fill-in closer David Hernandez. Final score: Diamondbacks 6, Astros 3.
It could have been worse, but either way the Astros gift-wrapped first place in the NL West to the D-backs. All in all, 'twas an interesting matchup to watch, as it was essentially a microcosm of the club's season this year. 2012 people...2012...
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
So...about that team MVP award...
You may think that I'm one of those sick, obsessive fans that think about their favorite baseball team day and night, never stopping to realize that, in fact, there might be other things in life that are more important and/or more interesting. If you're so bold as to think THAT low of me, well...you'd be right. I think about the Astros' woes almost every night before I fall asleep, and last night, I had a stunning realization that required me to sit up in bed because I was laughing so hard.
Who will be named the team MVP for 2011?
If you recall, Hunter Pence ran away with the award last season, though I believe undeservedly so, as Michael Bourn's meaningful numbers certainly showed that he was more valuable to the club than Pence. However, the league MVP award itself is no model of true value measurent, as more often than not, the player with the most RBIs (scoff, scoff) in the league usually takes home the metal. So I don't really blame team execs for handing the award to Pence in 2010. He would have undoubtedly been the recipient of the award this year as well, had he not been traded to Philadelphia. Bourn would obviously be the next logical choice if he were still in an Astros uniform.
While scanning the current roster, it may be easy to point to Wandy Rodriguez as the team's most valuable player; if W-Rod stays all the way through the season and is moved over the winter, than I'll agree that he's easily the team MVP in 2011. After all, despite his paltry win-loss record (which, let's face it, doesn't reflect well at all on a pitcher's true value) Wandy is currently on pace for the third-best season of his career by way of his xFIP (3.67). He's also good for a WAR of 1.4, which is better than a lot of other clankers on the club. Seeing as Wandy's always been a feast or famine kinda guy, those are some pretty nice numbers. But most of the informed people in baseball are still positive that Rodriguez will clear waivers thanks to his hefty contract and will be dealt to a contender for some prime prospects. So if he's gone before this season mercifully ends, who will be dubbed the 2011 Houston Astros' least-least valuable player?
I'm not really sure I have the answer to this one, but let's talk it out. Obviously, the race would be limited to Clint Barmes, Carlos Lee, Bud Norris, and I guess Brett Myers. Everybody else has either been demoted or hasn't played enough games to get serious consideration. I'll be the first to strike off Lee and Myers from the ballot, even though Carlos has somewhat improved his icky triple slash line to an almost-respectable .266/.319/.428. Surprisingly, he has a higher WAR than Wandy, coasting in at 2.1. Myers has been bad, though maybe not as atrocious as everyone has thought. The stark difference between his ERA (4.76) and xFIP (3.82) highlights the serious ineptitude of the defense behind him. But sorry Brett, a miniscule 0.2 WAR isn't going to win you this race.
Norris has been solid and right in line with his ZiPS projections for 2011, posting an ERA of 3.73, which is comfortably close to his xFIP of 3.58 (you've got to assume that the xFIP will almost always be lower than the ERA, as even the best defenses make errors). His K/9 is an average 8.49, which is rather disappointing, as I could see him becoming a high strikeout guy at the beginning of the season. However, he is focusing more on getting guys out over just missing bats, which is a good sign. A 1.6 WAR is decent, but I guess since I'm starting to trend towards highest-WAR-on-the-team-gets-the-award territory, it doesn't look like Bud's done enough to cut it.
And that brings us to Clint Barmes, folks. The offseason acquisition who many decried, the guy who didn't even start on Opening Day due to an injury, the guy who couldn't hit a lick at the beginning of the season...is your 2011 team MVP. Look, in all seriousness, as much as I disliked the initial acquisition of Barmes, and while I thought it indescribably absurd that Ed Wade and Co. labeled him "unavailable" at the trading deadline, I think Barmes has honestly been one of the solid pieces on the team this year, mostly due to his above-average glovework at shortstop. I'm with ya, his triple slash line of .253/.320/.393 is underwhelming, but those numbers are pretty close to his career averages, with his OBP actually 17 point higher. He's no slugger, but he's got a respectable 2.3 WAR, and as mentioned before, he's the only sure thing in an infield full of clowns and rookies. Out of respect more than anything else, I have no problem with Clint Barmes being the 2011 Astros MVP.
Who will be named the team MVP for 2011?
If you recall, Hunter Pence ran away with the award last season, though I believe undeservedly so, as Michael Bourn's meaningful numbers certainly showed that he was more valuable to the club than Pence. However, the league MVP award itself is no model of true value measurent, as more often than not, the player with the most RBIs (scoff, scoff) in the league usually takes home the metal. So I don't really blame team execs for handing the award to Pence in 2010. He would have undoubtedly been the recipient of the award this year as well, had he not been traded to Philadelphia. Bourn would obviously be the next logical choice if he were still in an Astros uniform.
While scanning the current roster, it may be easy to point to Wandy Rodriguez as the team's most valuable player; if W-Rod stays all the way through the season and is moved over the winter, than I'll agree that he's easily the team MVP in 2011. After all, despite his paltry win-loss record (which, let's face it, doesn't reflect well at all on a pitcher's true value) Wandy is currently on pace for the third-best season of his career by way of his xFIP (3.67). He's also good for a WAR of 1.4, which is better than a lot of other clankers on the club. Seeing as Wandy's always been a feast or famine kinda guy, those are some pretty nice numbers. But most of the informed people in baseball are still positive that Rodriguez will clear waivers thanks to his hefty contract and will be dealt to a contender for some prime prospects. So if he's gone before this season mercifully ends, who will be dubbed the 2011 Houston Astros' least-least valuable player?
I'm not really sure I have the answer to this one, but let's talk it out. Obviously, the race would be limited to Clint Barmes, Carlos Lee, Bud Norris, and I guess Brett Myers. Everybody else has either been demoted or hasn't played enough games to get serious consideration. I'll be the first to strike off Lee and Myers from the ballot, even though Carlos has somewhat improved his icky triple slash line to an almost-respectable .266/.319/.428. Surprisingly, he has a higher WAR than Wandy, coasting in at 2.1. Myers has been bad, though maybe not as atrocious as everyone has thought. The stark difference between his ERA (4.76) and xFIP (3.82) highlights the serious ineptitude of the defense behind him. But sorry Brett, a miniscule 0.2 WAR isn't going to win you this race.
Norris has been solid and right in line with his ZiPS projections for 2011, posting an ERA of 3.73, which is comfortably close to his xFIP of 3.58 (you've got to assume that the xFIP will almost always be lower than the ERA, as even the best defenses make errors). His K/9 is an average 8.49, which is rather disappointing, as I could see him becoming a high strikeout guy at the beginning of the season. However, he is focusing more on getting guys out over just missing bats, which is a good sign. A 1.6 WAR is decent, but I guess since I'm starting to trend towards highest-WAR-on-the-team-gets-the-award territory, it doesn't look like Bud's done enough to cut it.
And that brings us to Clint Barmes, folks. The offseason acquisition who many decried, the guy who didn't even start on Opening Day due to an injury, the guy who couldn't hit a lick at the beginning of the season...is your 2011 team MVP. Look, in all seriousness, as much as I disliked the initial acquisition of Barmes, and while I thought it indescribably absurd that Ed Wade and Co. labeled him "unavailable" at the trading deadline, I think Barmes has honestly been one of the solid pieces on the team this year, mostly due to his above-average glovework at shortstop. I'm with ya, his triple slash line of .253/.320/.393 is underwhelming, but those numbers are pretty close to his career averages, with his OBP actually 17 point higher. He's no slugger, but he's got a respectable 2.3 WAR, and as mentioned before, he's the only sure thing in an infield full of clowns and rookies. Out of respect more than anything else, I have no problem with Clint Barmes being the 2011 Astros MVP.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
The Brew Crew...Again
Houston Astros (37-74) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (62-50), August 5-7, Minute Maid Park
Game 1:
7:05 pm- J.A. Happ (4-13, 6.01 ERA) vs. Yovani Gallardo (12-7, 3.69)
Game 2:
6:05 pm- Brett Myers (3-11, 4.65) vs. Chris Narveson (7-6, 4.39)
Game 3:
1:05 pm- Bud Norris (5-7, 3.47) vs. Zack Greinke (9-4, 4.41)
The Brewers have been the Jekyll and Hyde of MLB this season, with the best record at home to go along with one of the worst on the road. However, any lineup that still has Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the middle of it can never be discounted on any night. It's rather unfortunate that Norris has to run out against Greinke, but I'll still pick that one as the game to watch in this series. I fully expect Happ and Myers to get healthily shelled. Other than that, the Astros' only hope is that with Ricky Weeks out, Milwaukee is fielding one of the most laughable defensive infields in baseball, with Fielder, Felipe Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Casey McGehee taking the grounders.
PREDICTION: I'd like to be optimistic here, but the last time I tried that, I predicted the 'Stros to take 3 of 4 from Florida, and they ended up getting swept. Against a much more potent lineup and staff than the likes of the Marlins', I'll be reasonable here and say that Houston wins one of these games. Which one? Don't ask me.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Ed Wade: How lame is he?
11/8/07
Wade trades P Brad Lidge and IF Eric Bruntlett to Philadelphia for OF Michael Bourn, P Geoff Geary, and 3B Mike Costanzo.
Judgement: Win
Ironically, the first deal that Wade ever made will probably end up being his best as the general manager in Houston. Giving up a streaky Lidge and a meaningless Bruntlett for such a talented guy like Bourn showed promise at the beginning of Wade's tenure. Getting some solid innings out of Geary was icing on the cake.
12/12/07
Wade trades OF Luke Scott, P Matt Albers, 3B Mike Costanzo, P Troy Patton, and P Dennis Sarfate to Baltimore for SS Miguel Tejada.
Judgement: Loss
This trade initially looked a lot worse than it ended up being, as Scott was the only player dealt from Houston who turned out to be anything worthwhile, despite his neo-conservative antics and odd placement of 37 guns in his house. But giving up five young players for Tejada at that point in his career was inexcusable. Casual Astros fans might be like "Hey! That dude hit some homers for us!". So did Carlos Lee at the beginning of his career in Houston. Tejada ate payroll, played terrible defense, and dogged it way too much for my liking. How in the world he's still in San Francisco is beyond me.
12/13/07
Wade trades P Chad Qualls, OF Chris Burke and P Juan Gutierrez to Arizona for P Jose Valverde.
Judgement: Loss
This was a tough one to call, but I'll judge it by the amount of money that Wade paid for a 2-year stint by a closer who I've always found overrated. Valverde saved a fair amount of games in Houston, but he also blew his fair share as well. I initially was shocked that Wade didn't make Qualls the closer in the first place, but sending him and the out-of-style Burke to Arizona for the league leader in saves was a sexy move that earned praise.
12/1/09
Wade signs P Brandon Lyon and P Matt Lindstrom.
Judgement: Loss
Ok, this one wasn't entirely his fault, though he should have looked at Lyon's career numbers and realized that he might not necessarily be a reliable back-end of the bullpen kinda guy. But alas, Lindstrom was injury-riddled and wild in his one season as closer, and lo and behold, even though Lyon performed excellently as the setup man and fill-in closer in '10, he was injury-riddled and wild in his one (half) season as closer. Doesn't exactly sound like a stellar acquisition to me.
7/29/10
Wade trades P Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia for P J.A. Happ, OF Anthony Gose, and SS Jonathan Villar. Gose was later flipped to Toronto for 1B Brett Wallace.
Judgement: Win
I think it's rather fair to say that Oswalt was on the downhill portion of his career when he asked to be dealt, and seeing as he didn't want to be in Houston anymore anyway, I actually thought Wade did a nice job of swinging a deal that netted him a good number of farmhands. Happ was obviously the crown jewel in the trade, and while he has...uh...underwhelmed us so far, there's still time for him to improve. Villar is progressing well in the minors, and while Wallace is inexplicably killing time in AAA ball right now, he has the potential to be a cornerstone of the franchise in future years.
7/29/11
Wade trades OF Hunter Pence to Philadelphia for P Jarred Cosart, 1B Jonathan Singleton, P Josh Zeid and a PTBNL.
Judgement: Win
For the life of me, I still can't understand why Astros fans are angry about this deal. The only reason it angered me was because it might save Wade his job. If you have the opportunity to trade your second-best player for the top pitching and hitting prospects in another team's system, you gotta take it. Zeid is projected to be a solid reliever. What more do you want for a guy who's performance was overrated anyway?
7/31/11
Wade trades OF Michael Bourn to Atlanta for OF Jordan Schafer, P Brett Oberholtzer, P Paul Clemens, and P Juan Abreu.
Judgement: Epic terrible fail loss
Just when I thought Wade did something to help the team, he goes out and gets hosed. Houston brass have always undervalued Bourn, and they did so right up until they shipped him out of town for a castoff, injury-prone outfielder and a bunch of second-tier pitching prospects. Keith Law said that Wade looked at the Braves' prospect list upside-down. I think that he probably didn't look at it at all.
Wade: Yeah Frank, we're gonna need some pretty good pitchers if we're gonna give up Bourn. Is Maddux untouchable?
Frank Wren: Well...uh...I got some other guys you might be interested in. Like this kid, Ober-something or other. And this other guy, Clemens. I think he's related to Roger.
Wade: NO WAY. We'll take 'em. And we'll send you some cash just to sweeten the deal.
So as you can see, not everything Wade has done ended up bad. But in the grand scheme of things, I'd still say, he's pretty lame.
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