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| Paredes has the speed. |
One of the most important decisions facing the Astros in 2012 will be the selection of their starting corner infielders. Will Carlos Lee continue to clunk around at first with Brett Wallace riding the pine? A lot of that depends on whether or not Brad Mills is still filling out the lineup cards. On the other side, is the young upstart Jimmy Paredes better suited for the job? Or should it be 2010 NL Rookie of the Year contender Chris Johnson? I decided to take a look specifically at the hot corner battle, and through the use of offensive, defensive, and baserunning metrics compiled by fangraphs.com, evaluated which guy should be manning third on Opening Day 2012.
Offense:
First, I compared both players' 2011 major league seasons at the plate. This example is a bit skewed, as Johnson (who was the starter at the hot corner until being sent down to Oklahoma City in August) has 403 plate appearances, compared to Paredes' 172. Johnson's slash line is a less-than-stellar .253/.293/.380. His wOBA in 2011 is a terrible .291, and his WAR is pretty bad too, checking in at -0.7. Johnson's wRC+ (weighted runs created) is 82. Astros fans must have been shocked by this precipitous drop-off, as Johnson posted some sexy numbers in the second half of 2010: .308/.337/.481, a wOBA of .354, a wRC+ of 120, and a respectable 1.5 WAR. Why the change? Johnson claims it's because pitchers have started to figure him out. In an interview earlier this season, CJ talked about how he used to see fastball after fastball in '10, since pitchers apparently thought he was just some young gun from AAA that they could easily overpower. Now, he claimed, they were becoming smart and starting and ending his at-bats with breaking balls. I have to admit that at the time, based upon my own observations, I agreed with him. However, the numbers tell a different story. In 2010, Johnson saw a fastball 54.2% of the time, and a curve, changeup, or slider 42.7%. In 2011, he's actually seen the fastball more, with hurlers throwing it at him 58.4% of the time. The rate at which he's seen breaking balls has actually dropped to 38.7% as well. So while I agree that CJ can't hit a curveball--especially low in the zone-- his assertation that pitchers are throwing that exclusively now is not just hyperbole, it's incorrect.
Paredes' 2011 numbers look eerily similar to those of Johnson's rookie campaign, albeit a little less impressive. Paredes' slash line is a decent .286/.322/.385, with a wOBA of .307, a wRC+ of 93, and a 0.5 WAR. One can conjecture that with more plate appearances, Paredes' figures could have rose to or surpassed those of Johnson's that put him in the NL ROY discussion. Paredes' problems lie in the fact that he has always been strikeout-prone. He's posted a 25% K rate this year, and has had one above 15% in every league since his A ball days with the Yankees. He's never been known for his power, as he's hit just two long balls in his time in Houston, and totals just 20 in his three years of minor league experience. He's also benefited from a high BABIP during his months with the 'Stros, coming in at .376. Whether that number is pure luck or is representative of his line-drive tendency will be fleshed out in 2012.
Overall, the answer lies in what kind of hitter you want at the plate. Johnson can get a ball out of the yard in a hurry, but his streakiness scares Houston management. Maybe it's just a sophomore slump, but Bill Hall showed that you can only strike out so many times before you're kaput. Paredes is more of a gap hitter, and with his speed, that can be a serious weapon. However, his power pales in comparison to Johnson's, and while CJ's best case scenario places him as a 4 or 5 hitter, Paredes can only realistically expect to be a 2, 6, or 7 guy. If the Astros are content with what Paredes has shown thus far, than it's an easy decision. But the riskier and potentially more rewarding choice is Johnson.
My pick: Johnson
Defense:
I find it rather curious that Paredes and Johnson were brought up as third basemen in the first place (and apparently so do the Houston brass, as reports say that Johnson has recently been taking a few grounders at first, not that that helps the team defensively any), as both are pretty terrible with the glove. This is readily apparent when looking at the standard statistics, as Johnson has booted 15 plays in 2011, with Paredes collecting five errors of his own. Johnson is an equal opportunity offender, totaling six fielding miscues and eight throwing errors. Conversely, Paredes appears to have purely a wild arm, as all but one of his errors have come by way of errant throw. In all, both men have ugly fielding percentages, with Johnson checking in at .937 (which is sadly a marked improvement over his 2010 number of .908) and Paredes at .952.
The advanced metrics further highlight their respective ineptitude. Johnson's DRS (defensive runs saved) is a ghastly -16, third-worst in the majors in front of only Mark Reynolds and Derek Jeter, and tied with the likes of Eric Hosmer, Starlin Castro (Starlin freakin' Castro!) and Raul Ibanez. To really put it into perspective, Pablo Sandoval (did anyone expect this?) is the leader at the hot corner with 22 DRS. Paredes is closer to the Johnson/Castro/Ibanez territory with -2 DRS. If UZR is your stat, Johnson and Paredes are pretty bad in that category too, with Johnson coming in at -13.8, tepid compared to his 150 game projection of -21.6. Paredes' UZR is -1.1, with a 150 game projection of -4.1.
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| Johnson has the pop. |
My pick: Paredes
Baserunning:
This is a pretty cut and dry comparison. Johnson never was fleet of foot, and in 2011 he's shown no improvement with just two stolen bases and two caught stealing. In all, CJ has totaled just 24 swipes in his five-year minor and major league career. To be fair, Johnson never was projected to be a speed guy, and typically, it's not exactly crucial that a corner infielder provide more than 5-10 steals per season. However, it sure can be a lethal weapon when you do have that. Paredes has five steals with the Astros this season, and though he's been caught four times as well, he also swiped 29 bags in AAA this year. Indeed, he's taken 113 total bases in just three years in the big leagues. His wheels also allow him to leg out triples, of which he had seven in split time with the Yankees' and Astros' farm systems in 2010. Paredes' Brs (Baserunning runs above average) according to Fangraphs is 0.3; Johnson's is -0.5. Paredes' 4-component speed score according to Fangraphs is 8.1; Johnson's is 4.3. It's an easy choice.
My pick: Paredes
Overall:
All in all, the Astros will have to decide what kind of player they want to start at third base. Johnson is more of the classic hot corner man: fiery, loud, a powerful bat and a penchant for big hits when needed. Paredes is the sabermetrician's dream: better in the advanced metrics, fleet of foot, smarter in the field and on the basepaths, and possessor of the ability to move guys over with a double in the gap. The kicker in the decision might be who the Houston brass peg to be the starter at first, for if Carlos Lee continues his late power surge into 2012, they might be more comfortable putting the weaker bat in the other corner infield spot. If Wallace becomes the guy and doesn't show more pop in his bat, Johnson might be called upon to provide more dingers. While the Wallace/Johnson combination didn't go as planned in '11, Ed Wade and Co. might be willing to give the guys another shot. Either way, it should be an interesting competition in spring training, but if I'm made the new general manager and/or manager, I know who I'm putting on that lineup card.
My pick: Paredes
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