Quick Hits, Walkoff Style

An exciting game to finally obtain that elusive tenth win. Here's a few thoughts on what I saw against the Brew Crew tonight.

1. Once again, if I haven't emphasized this enough, Brandon Lyon...not closer material.

Look I like the guy, and he'd be a fantastic setup man, AND he's LDS to boot, but the guy just can't get three outs. I've already lamented about how the poor dude ends up having to face the 3-4-5 guys literally every time, but that's no excuse. You're in the majors, you're the closer, and you gotta get it done, no questions asked. Now the thing is, I have no solution for this problem, and I'm positive that Mills, Wade and Co. don't either. Wilton Lopez was great last year, but he hasn't looked too fantastic so far, and no one's gonna throw some guy just coming off the DL into the closer's spot. Mark Melancon has been a pleasant surprise, but he's too inexperienced and seems to attract errors and freak mistakes (a proven stat when it comes to closers). After that, it's an absolute wasteland in the bullpen. So what to do? Don't ask me, but I can tell you that Lyon isn't going to be the solution.

2. I'm officially lobbying for Jason Bourgeois to be in the starting lineup.

Now you can accuse me of overreacting, but I can't help but get excited when I watch this guy. He was the hero tonight, getting the walkoff when after Lyon blew the save. Sure, the .344/.344/.438 numbers are going to go down, since that's only a 27 AB sample, but the dude is like another lesser Michael Bourn. Not as fast, not as handy with the glove (even though he absolutely ROBBED Matt Holliday the other day) but he's an upgrade over Hall at 2B. Just sayin'.

3. Wandy Rodriguez has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the NL.

We all know the story and the numbers of W-Rod's stellar second half comeback last year. In 2011, he's simply choosing to mix it up for us instead of stinking the first half and wrecking the latter half. The good start, bad start routine is starting (LOLZ) to get a little old, but man is he fun to watch when he's on. Putting up 8 straight zeroes was clutch, not to mention just what the doctor ordered, as the Houston pitching has been hard to watch the last few games. Wandy has always been the enigma in the starting rotation, a guy that many major leaguers will tell you can be impossible to hit at times, but just a classic case of inconsistency in a game that preaches it as the saving quality. Tough luck loss for him, but easily the reason why we won tonight.

4. I'm not convinced that Aneury Rodriguez will be better than Nelson Figueroa in the 5 spot.

I hope he is. I pray he is. But I'm not sure it's gonna happen. He'll be making his major league starter's debut Tuesday against the Reds of all teams, and an ERA of already 6.75 isn't exactly comforting, but here's hoping. He's young and inexperienced, so we will have to take the bumps and bruises that come along with that distinction. All in all, our 5th pitcher couldn't really have gotten any worse, and Rodriguez has shown some nasty stuff at times, so with fingers crossed and low expectations, the team can throw him in the fray and pray. Figueroa is better served in the 'pen anyway.

I want Wally back! Sure missed him tonight. Hope Jim Crane, if you're out there...we need you.

Quick Hits+Series Preview

A disappointing series loss that could have gone either way, if it weren't for Lance Berkman and a reprehensible 9 spot surrendered by the Houston bullpen. Couple of quick hits and an upcoming look at the weekend series versus the Crew before the night is gone.

1. This team, unlike many of the Astros' former squads, can actually score runs.

This is not a fluke, and no you didn't read that wrong. I remember the days when we would have to win games 1-0 or 2-1 to stay in contention, but much like the crosstown Houston Rockets, the team philosophy has changed from defense to offense. The fact that the Astros have the second-best home BA in the National League (behind only Milwaukee) is a rather astounding fact considering two of the regulars on the field are hitting sub-.200 and another is at .231. The one real positive that I gleaned from this series was the team's resiliency. After trailing 6-0 in the second game, the troops rallied to finish the game strong 6-5, with Pence striking out with the winning run on second. Tonight's game had an equally scintillating ending: after going down 10-4 a comeback was staged to make the game end 11-7 with two runners stranded when Bourn got robbed on a grounder to second. Yes, our bullpen is even worse than the Cards, but when the Astros run into a team that doesn't sport Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman in the middle of the lineup, there will be a much better shot to win.

2. In all seriousness Brad Mills, it's time to shuffle the lineup.

While the argument can be made that Carlos Lee finally got off the schneid today with a double, a single, and two RBIs, and Bill Hall has started to see his average climb a little bit to .231, the team would be much better served with a new lineup. Here's a humble suggestion (feel free to insert yours, brave commenters):

Bourn, CF

Barmes, SS (I still believe he will be an upgrade over Sanchez, but I thought the same thing about Hall over Keppinger.)

Pence, RF

Wallace, 1B

Lee, LF

Johnson, 3B

Quintero/Towles, C

Hall, 2B

This way, the top of the lineup is kept relatively intact, so complaints about jumping to conclusions too early about slow starts is defused. The second-worst-hitting starter on the team (in terms of BA) is moved down only one spot to accomodate the best-hitting starter on the team. Ideally, I'd like to put Wallace in the 3 spot because of his hot bat right now, but I understand management's concern with his strikeout rate. I can tell you one thing though, if it had been Wallace standing on 3rd in the 8th inning tonight, we might still be watching a game, since there would have been no way he would have tried to score on that past ball. I'm not sure if that's a good thing, and maybe it's a knock on his lack of speed, but I'm a big believer in best performer, best position. He at least belongs at cleanup. Hall really belongs in the 8 hole anyway with Q and Towles hitting excellently right now.

3. The Houston Astros are headed in the right direction.

Yes, it sounds crazy. But watching this series, I didn't get the sense of doom and gloom that I usually do when we lose 2 out of 3 to the archrival that we probably should have won the series against. Scoring runs is truthfully not as important as preventing them, and because the Astros have the league's second-worst ERA and worst defense, there may not be a whole lot of wins this year, but I believe that a team that can rake always has a chance in this game. Let the starters settle down, let the bullpen find itself, and this ship could get itself turned around. After all, it's only April, and the Central isn't exactly looking like the AL East this year.

SERIES PREVIEW: Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers: April 29-May 1, 2011 @ Minute Maid Park

Game 1:

7:05 pm- Myers (1-0, 3.31 ERA) vs. Marcum (2-1, 2.73 ERA)

Game 2:

6:05 pm- Rodriguez (1-3, 5.40 ERA) vs. Wolf (3-2, 2.64 ERA)

Game 3:

1:05 pm- Norris (1-1, 3.86 ERA) vs. Narveson (1-1, 4.33 ERA)

I'll be honest with you, I'm really tempted to call for a series sweep for the 'Stros, but I won't for two reasons: a) Once I predict that one of my favorite sports teams will win a game, they invariably always lose. It's a jinx. And b) We are still talking about the Astros here. The Crew is coming in just mashing the ball, with their BA, OBP, and SLG all in the top 5 in the majors. This would obviously not bode well for the team that is sporting an ERA of 4.99 and a WHIP of 1.60. However, the top of the rotation is up, and I believe that Myers, Rodriguez, and Norris will all pitch well, especially considering the fact that Bud has strung together 3 quality starts with only 3 ER total in said starts.

PREDICTION: The Good Guys take 2 out of 3 for the second series win of the season. I believe Myers will bounce back from two shaky starts and outpitch Marcum, and I have faith that Norris will do the same to Narveson, who had an atrocious outing his last time on the bump. Rodriguez will pitch well, following the typical pattern of bad start, good start for the number 2 pitcher, but Randy Wolf effectively mowed down his former club last Sunday, and I smell at least one bullpen collapse, even if W-Rod gives them the lead before both starters are taken out. All in all, if the Astros bats stay active, a series win would be nice before heading on the road to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

Gotta go. Only 6 hours till the Royal Wedding! (Note the sarcasm)

Lazy Lee

Readers of the Juice know that I have not always been an advocate of Carlos Lee. I loved it when we signed him to a club-record six year deal worth $100 mill, but heck, back in 2006 I still had braces, listened to Jimmy Eat World, and thought the only stat that mattered was home runs. Now, I've seen the light in the El Caballo situation, and am officially jumping on the bandwagon to bench the left fielder, or at least move him down in the order.

But the fact that Houston's cleanup hitter is currently hitting to the tune of .198/.238/.333 doesn't worry me near as much as the body language he's exhibiting. After striking out in a key situation in last night's game, Lee stalked towards the dugout with a look on his face that seemed to say, "Oh well man, I struck out again, but hey at least the ranch back in Panama has that new electric fence!". I jest, but my father (who coincidentally lives on a ranch near Austin) never fails to point out that Carlos has long seemed as if he'd rather be herding cattle than hitting baseballs.

Now I'm not a proponent of smashing the water cooler or snapping bats every time you strike out, in fact, I think the Mickey Mantles of the world look rather stupid when they bash things mercilessly after bad ABs. (Especially the water cooler; if I'm a teammate and somebody smashes the drinking water, I'm pissed. Now everyone has to be thirsty the rest of the game). But there's a difference between being a non-angry self-critic and being lazy. That's the line that I'm afraid Lee is about to cross. All the hype has been made this week about Lance Berkman suddenly getting a workout regimen and trying harder now that he's with a contender. Hopefully Carlos won't end with that same kind of story.

Quick Hits

A couple quick thoughts about the Stros/Cards game on 4/26 before I bury my head in study material.

1. Bud Norris would be so much more valuable if he would pitch against everyone else the way he pitches against STL.

Kinda obvious, but I just don't understand why he can't be more consistent. Maybe he hypes himself up more for games against the Redbirds, maybe he changes his preparation, maybe he just likes the color red. Who knows? But Norris always looks like the excellent young pitcher that he should be when he plays against our archrival. Wish he would do it more often.

2. Bill Hall and Carlos Lee have no business in the lineup right now.

Lee went 0 for 4 for what seems like the 20th time this season, and while Bill Hall was the hero of the game, let's not forget that that was only his first hit of the night, and one that would never have gotten out of the infield had the Cards been in any other formation defensively. The ball was lucky to have found a hole. But really Mills, why are we putting the two worst hitters in the order in the number 4 and 5 spots? You could maybe make a case for Lee, since he has always hit cleanup (and not to mention he's earning $19 mill a year....maybe that factors into this), but he's atrocious right now at the plate. Just witness what he did in the 9th with the bases loaded and no out: popped out to the pitcher's mound. Reprehensible.

And Hall in the number 5 hole? Sorry Mills, a .230/.288/.351 line doesn't cut it there. Hall strikes out all the time, and he's starting to remind me of Inglett with his early count hacking. Move Wallace up! I can't believe he's still stewing down at number 6.

3. Brandon Lyon still looks shaky in the closer's role.

I feel bad for the guy, because every save he's blown (or in this case, every run he's given up in the ninth) has been against the best part of the opposing team's lineup. Opening Day? He had to face Rollins, Howard, and Francisco. The other night against the Crew, in the game where he eventually got the win, he gave up just one run to the Counsell-Braun-Fielder sequence. And last night, he had to come in against Holliday-Berkman-Freese, and if he hadn't been scratched with a foot problem, the sequence would have been Pujols-Holliday-Berkman. Who wants to face those hitters every night with a one run lead? So I feel bad for the guy. That being said, I still believe that the closer's job is to come in with ice in the veins, and shut the door no matter who's at the plate, a la Billy Wagner. However, Lyon is no Wagner, and he isn't even a Lidge when Lidge was Lights Out. The bullpen is known to be shaky this year, but it'd be nice if we at least had a sure thing on the back end when and if we have a lead.

So everyone can cool their jets now that we've at least won one game in the series (frankly, I was looking at a sweep). Hopefully with a little bit of lineup shuffle, we can nab another win tonight against the hard-to-hit Kyle Lohse.

Barmes is back...so now what?

The Astros announced last week that newly-acquired shortstop Clint Barmes would start a three game rehab assignment with the AAA Oklahoma City Redhawks, followed by a possible home debut Friday against Milwaukee. While his arrival into the struggling Houston lineup has been long-anticipated, Brad Mills and Ed Wade are being faced with a difficult decision, as they will have to clear a roster spot in order to make room for Barmes. What follows is a few courses of action that the manager and GM could take, but none are perfect, so feel free to shout out your own idea.

1. Clint Barmes becomes the starting shortstop, Angel Sanchez is relegated to the utilityman role, and Joe Inglett is put on waivers.

In a perfect world, (or in this writer's perfect world), this is possibly the best situation for the Astros. Angel Sanchez is leading the team in hits, but his average has been steadily declining (.291/.330/.372), and he seems to be lost at the plate as of late. Barmes was ballyhooed as the big free agent signee for Houston over the winter (the fact that he was our biggest acquisition was rather absurd...but that's a different post), so there's really no way he's going to sit and miss any playing time once his broken hand is ready. That being said, Angel will be a nice, average player to pull off the bench if and when Barmes or second baseman Bill Hall need an off day.

In terms of Inglett getting cut, the decision would be a tough but appreciated one. Mills only likes to carry six infielders at any time, which is a good decision considering our bullpen is overworked as it is, so either Inglett or journeyman Matt Downs is going to lose out on this deal. Houston simply will not and should not move Jason Bourgeois or Jason Michaels, as both bring their respective speed and power and, in Bourgeois' case, defensive ability to the field. That being said, Inglett is the one who should be let go. Both Downs and Inglett are average to below-average defensive players, so choosing one over the other based on glove ability is just plain stupid. At the plate, Downs (.286/.333/.500) has the slight edge as he can hit for power or average if need be, and more importantly, he makes smart plate appearances. Downs works the count mercilessly, and never gets cheated on his swings. He was the hero of the final game in Cincinnati, already has one homer, and would have had another one if the foul pole in the Crawford Boxes had been a foot further to the left.

Conversely, Inglett (.111/.111/.111) is an unrepentant first-pitch swinger, something he has been all of his career, and vows to be the rest of it. While it's true he's the only left-handed bat off the bench, this doesn't matter all that much, as Mills and Wade should be focusing more on which players will help the team succeed rather than what side of the plate they hit from. A snapshot from the Astros/Cubs game on April 11th helps to illustrate just exactly how Inglett affects the team: Ryan Dempster finally seemed to be tiring, and the Astros had caught up to him and put a few runs on the board, trailing only 5-4. Dempster then walked two straight batters on a minimal number of pitches to juice the bases with two outs. Joe Inglett strode to the plate...and grounded out to second on the first pitch he saw.

See what I mean? A pitcher who is known to get wild at times walks TWO straight hitters and Inglett swings on the first pitch. That's the kind of stuff that kills rallies, winning streaks, and morale.

2. Clint Barmes becomes the starting shortstop, Angel Sanchez is relegated to the utilityman role, and Matt Downs is placed on waivers.

This is my cold-blooded prediction of what will happen. While Downs was a nice pickup on the cheap over the winter, Inglett was a more hyped acquisition, and because of his oh-so-important left-handed bat, along with the alleged claim that he can play some outfield will probably spell doom for Downs. Someone will refer to the fact that Inglett lead the majors in pinch-hits last year, and that will inexplicably push him over the edge as the last survivor.

3. It doesn't matter who is cut, because when Jeff Keppinger comes back, both Downs and Inglett will be gone.

Again, what I think ultimately will happen. The Astros like Kepp, and Kepp likes the Astros, as he seemed almost willing to cede his starting second baseman job to Bill Hall with nary a complaint. He seems to genuinely like playing in Houston, and because of his veteran leadership and the fact that he led the team in BA for a long stretch of last season will see that he's sitting in the dugout at the Juicebox whenever he's healthy again. Essentially, it's a matter of time before both Downs and Inglett are shooed away, and with good reason, as Sanchez and Keppinger are a better duo off the bench, hands down.

The real question is, why are all these guys on the team and fighting for roster spots? Don't take this as a rant, but it seems that Wade and cash-strapped owner Drayton McLane have been preaching the gospel of "rebuilding" and "young talent infusion" for a solid calendar year now. Lo and behold, in the offseason they sign the 31-year-old Hall and the 32-year-old Barmes. Keppinger is 31, Downs is 27 and Inglett is 32. I'm sorry, but with the exception of Downs, none of those numbers look like young ballplayers to me. It's maddening to think that the Astros keep claiming "young overhaul!" and then sign those age of players. And choose Nelson Figueroa over Jordan Lyles for the #5 spot in the rotation. And choose to play the aging Jason Michaels in left field and the unspeakable Carlos Lee at first base against lefties and let hot-hitting Brett Wallace ride the pine. If there's going to be a young talent overhaul, then let it be a YOUNG talent overhaul. This is just starting to look like the Astros of old, reminiscent of Preston Wilson signings and Pedro Feliz experiments.

But that's another rant.