Thursday, April 28, 2011

Quick Hits+Series Preview

A disappointing series loss that could have gone either way, if it weren't for Lance Berkman and a reprehensible 9 spot surrendered by the Houston bullpen. Couple of quick hits and an upcoming look at the weekend series versus the Crew before the night is gone.

1. This team, unlike many of the Astros' former squads, can actually score runs.

This is not a fluke, and no you didn't read that wrong. I remember the days when we would have to win games 1-0 or 2-1 to stay in contention, but much like the crosstown Houston Rockets, the team philosophy has changed from defense to offense. The fact that the Astros have the second-best home BA in the National League (behind only Milwaukee) is a rather astounding fact considering two of the regulars on the field are hitting sub-.200 and another is at .231. The one real positive that I gleaned from this series was the team's resiliency. After trailing 6-0 in the second game, the troops rallied to finish the game strong 6-5, with Pence striking out with the winning run on second. Tonight's game had an equally scintillating ending: after going down 10-4 a comeback was staged to make the game end 11-7 with two runners stranded when Bourn got robbed on a grounder to second. Yes, our bullpen is even worse than the Cards, but when the Astros run into a team that doesn't sport Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman in the middle of the lineup, there will be a much better shot to win.

2. In all seriousness Brad Mills, it's time to shuffle the lineup.

While the argument can be made that Carlos Lee finally got off the schneid today with a double, a single, and two RBIs, and Bill Hall has started to see his average climb a little bit to .231, the team would be much better served with a new lineup. Here's a humble suggestion (feel free to insert yours, brave commenters):

Bourn, CF
Barmes, SS (I still believe he will be an upgrade over Sanchez, but I thought the same thing about Hall over Keppinger.)
Pence, RF
Wallace, 1B
Lee, LF
Johnson, 3B
Quintero/Towles, C
Hall, 2B

This way, the top of the lineup is kept relatively intact, so complaints about jumping to conclusions too early about slow starts is defused. The second-worst-hitting starter on the team (in terms of BA) is moved down only one spot to accomodate the best-hitting starter on the team. Ideally, I'd like to put Wallace in the 3 spot because of his hot bat right now, but I understand management's concern with his strikeout rate. I can tell you one thing though, if it had been Wallace standing on 3rd in the 8th inning tonight, we might still be watching a game, since there would have been no way he would have tried to score on that past ball. I'm not sure if that's a good thing, and maybe it's a knock on his lack of speed, but I'm a big believer in best performer, best position. He at least belongs at cleanup. Hall really belongs in the 8 hole anyway with Q and Towles hitting excellently right now.

3. The Houston Astros are headed in the right direction.

Yes, it sounds crazy. But watching this series, I didn't get the sense of doom and gloom that I usually do when we lose 2 out of 3 to the archrival that we probably should have won the series against. Scoring runs is truthfully not as important as preventing them, and because the Astros have the league's second-worst ERA and worst defense, there may not be a whole lot of wins this year, but I believe that a team that can rake always has a chance in this game. Let the starters settle down, let the bullpen find itself, and this ship could get itself turned around. After all, it's only April, and the Central isn't exactly looking like the AL East this year.


SERIES PREVIEW: Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers: April 29-May 1, 2011 @ Minute Maid Park

Game 1:
7:05 pm- Myers (1-0, 3.31 ERA) vs. Marcum (2-1, 2.73 ERA)

Game 2:
6:05 pm- Rodriguez (1-3, 5.40 ERA) vs. Wolf (3-2, 2.64 ERA)

Game 3:
1:05 pm- Norris (1-1, 3.86 ERA) vs. Narveson (1-1, 4.33 ERA)

I'll be honest with you, I'm really tempted to call for a series sweep for the 'Stros, but I won't for two reasons: a) Once I predict that one of my favorite sports teams will win a game, they invariably always lose. It's a jinx. And b) We are still talking about the Astros here. The Crew is coming in just mashing the ball, with their BA, OBP, and SLG all in the top 5 in the majors. This would obviously not bode well for the team that is sporting an ERA of 4.99 and a WHIP of 1.60. However, the top of the rotation is up, and I believe that Myers, Rodriguez, and Norris will all pitch well, especially considering the fact that Bud has strung together 3 quality starts with only 3 ER total in said starts.

PREDICTION: The Good Guys take 2 out of 3 for the second series win of the season. I believe Myers will bounce back from two shaky starts and outpitch Marcum, and I have faith that Norris will do the same to Narveson, who had an atrocious outing his last time on the bump. Rodriguez will pitch well, following the typical pattern of bad start, good start for the number 2 pitcher, but Randy Wolf effectively mowed down his former club last Sunday, and I smell at least one bullpen collapse, even if W-Rod gives them the lead before both starters are taken out. All in all, if the Astros bats stay active, a series win would be nice before heading on the road to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

Gotta go. Only 6 hours till the Royal Wedding! (Note the sarcasm)

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