Has Bud Norris Improved?

Bud Norris gave up 4 ER Tuesday in Denver.

Whilst watching the see-saw battle between the Astros and Rockies last night, I found myself in a (semi) heated exchange with one of my Twitter followers about the fate of Bud Norris in 2011. I publicly wondered if Norris hadn't taken a step back this season from his solid 2010 campaign. My ardent fan vehemently disagreed with me, opting for an eyeball test explanation--things such as "hitting his spots better" and "more consistency" in his starts-- as to just how much Norris had upped his game this year. I couldn't help but think that this debate would make for a great post, so I ask Astros nation, has Bud Norris really improved as a pitcher this year?

I calmly explained to said follower that I prefer looking at numbers to eyeballing players when determining their level of talent, or in this case, improvement. A look at Norris' statistics show strikingly similar seasons from 2010 to 2011:

2010: 153.2 IP, 9-10, 4.92 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 9.25 K/9, 4.51 BB/9, 43.0 GB%, 1.6 WAR
2011: 157 IP, 6-8, 3.73 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 8.66 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 39.7 GB%, 1.5 WAR

It's a tough job analyzing two stat lines that look so similar, but with a cursory glance at them, I slowly began to agree with my astute Twitter follower, though he probably didn't know the numbers behind the man at the time (which is alright, because I didn't either until I looked them up). Norris has already pitched more innings this season than he did in all of 2010, so his current skid could very possibly be due to the spike in innings that he's experiencing. The man's arm isn't invincible. With five or six starts left, it's unlikely that Norris will match his win total from last year, but you never know. In terms of his ERA/FIP discrepancy, Norris might be the only Houston starter to be unaffected (or maybe just affected less) by the atrocious defense behind him, as his '11 FIP is actually higher than his ERA. (Sidenote: There's also a bit of trickery to the stat, as all the unearned runs charged to Bud are not indicated in his ERA, thereby still making him a victim of bad defense). That doesn't worry me though, as it's still down from 2010's figure, and essentially being on the downslope of any runs allowed type of stat is a good thing.

Norris' strikeout rate is down, and while that could be a considered a bad trend, anyone who's been watching him this season has surely noticed at least a small change in his approach to opposing batters. In 2010, I had the feeling that Norris wanted to be the second coming of Dwight Gooden, as he seemed to be constantly attempting to miss bats and strike out hitters with his power pitch, the fastball. This year, he's used his changeup and slider more consistently, and seems to be more focused on getting outs than getting strikeouts. Curiously, his groundball rate has dropped even with that philosophy change. Truly, his GB% drop is the only stat that has me worried.

In terms of consistency, this is ironically the only facet that I think Norris' game lacks. If we take a look at his game log from the 2011 season, a noticeable trend is a string of electric starts followed by a string of 4 or 5 earned in three straight starts. The only seemingly consistent  part of Norris' game is that he gives up hits in droves (he's served up less than five in just five starts this year). In essence, the consistency argument lacks substance.

At the end of writing this, I still can't decide if Bud Norris has truly improved this year. The numbers say one thing, the eyes say another. All in all, it won't matter come 2012, as he will be counted on to be the anchor of the Astros' staff, particularly if Wandy Rodriguez is gone.