Monday, September 26, 2011

Series Preview: Playing Spoiler

Remember when we were both good?

So if I had told you a few weeks ago that the Astros' last series of the season would end up being pretty meaningful, would you have laughed in my face? I would have too. But such is the beauty of September baseball, as the St. Louis Cardinals come to the Juicebox with just one game standing between them and the Atlanta Braves for the National League's wild card spot. The 'Stros/Cards rivalry may still have some life in it yet, so let's party like it's 2005 and enjoy the last series preview of 2011.

Houston Astros (55-104) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (88-71), September 26-28, Minute Maid Park

Game 1:
7:05 pm- Wandy Rodriguez (11-11, 3.51) vs. Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.45)

Game 2:
7:05 pm- Henry Sosa (3-5, 4.68) vs. Jake Westbrook (12-9, 4.48)

Game 3:
7:05 pm- Brett Myers (7-13, 4.31) vs. Chris Carpenter (10-9, 3.59)

Rodriguez is looking to finish as the only Houston starter with a winning record in 2011. Interestingly enough, it would only be the third time in his career that he's achieved such a feat, as he finished 9-7 in '08 and 14-12 in '09. While W-Rod hasn't fared well in terms of W-L against the Lou (he's just 6-11), he does have a 3.85 lifetime ERA against the club. Garcia, like the rest of his teammates, has been on fire in September after having a horrid August. Though a carbon copy of Rodriguez in terms of road ineptitude, he's fared well in his last three road draws, but is 0-3 against Houston altogether.

Sosa has given a quality effort in five of his last six starts, but just has one win to show for it. He's only struck out 11 dudes in his last three starts, but he has never faced the Cards before, so he should hopefully be able to keep the hitters on edge. Westbrook has started channeling his inner J.A. Happ, walking at least four batters a start with startling regularity. However, his last three draws have yielded nice results, as he's gone 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA.

The finale features what, at the beginning of the season, was thought to be these two teams' respective aces. Neither have performed up to expectations, but both are finishing the year strong. Myers has won four of hist last five starts, and after starting the year as a fatter version of Bronson Arroyo, hasn't given up a long ball in that five start span. While he's no longer your older brother's Chris Carpenter, the 2011 version is  1-0 in his last three starts with a 2.05 ERA. He's been plagued by absurdly low run support, yet has struck out 48 batters in his last eight games.

PREDICTION: Why the heck not?! The Astros take the first two games of the series, as W-Rod shuts down the hot STL lineup and Sosa does just enough with a little help from his batting mates to outlast Westbrook. Myers drops the finale to Carpenter, but because Atlanta faces a Philly team resting all of its starters, the Cards are faced with the bitter reality that they lost out on the wild card spot because they couldn't handle the league's worst team.

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