Monday, September 19, 2011

Series Preview: Redleg Nation

He was creepy earlier in the season, and he's still creepy now.
The march past 100 continues on as the Astros visit Cincinnati for what should be a super-fun three game series. The Reds themselves must be pretty disappointed with their 2011 NL Central title defense, but hey, at least they're not the worst team in the league. I still say we watch Cincy closely come 2012, especially if the young guys in their rotation start to figure it out. Not to mention they still have Joey Votto...
Houston Astros (52-100) vs. Cincinnati Reds (74-79), September 19-21, Great American Ballpark

Game 1:
6:10 pm- J.A. Happ (6-15, 5.59) vs. Dontrelle Willis (0-6, 5.04)

Game 2:
6:10 pm- Bud Norris (6-10, 3.68) vs. Homer Bailey (8-7, 4.43)

Game 3:
11:35 pm- Wandy Rodriguez (11-10, 3.55) vs. Bronson Arroyo (8-12, 5.34)

Happ has seemed to figure things out since his return from Oklahoma City, as he's gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts, including giving up just one run to the mighty Phillies. He's 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA all-time against the Reds. Poor Dontrelle Willis has still not won a game, thanks to occasional bad starts, and more often than not, untimely collapses by the Cincy bullpen. He missed his last start in Milwaukee due to back spasms. He plans to start today, but if not, Travis Wood will take the ball instead.

Norris has only one win in his last dozen starts, but that might not be entirely his fault, as he's posted a decent 4.04 ERA during that span. He's given up just three earned runs in his last two starts. I'm rather shocked that Bailey has a higher ERA than Norris, but Bailey has fallen victim to the long ball this season. He's 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts, but is 3-0 with a 1.35 all-time against the 'Stros.

Rodriguez is slowly moving up the Astros' left-hander victories list, so at least there's that. After struggling against the Cubs, he's 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA and 20 Ks in his last three starts. He's been historically mediocre against the Reds, racking up a 7-8 record with a 4.26 ERA. If you though Bailey gave up a lot of gopher balls, just take a look at Arroyo. He's already given up a club-record 44 dingers this season, and is just four away from the National League record of 48 set by none other than the late Jose Lima, and six away from Bert Blyleven's major league record 50. Arroyo has pitched well against the Astros though, posting an 11-6 mark with a 4.40 ERA.

PREDICION: This Reds club really took Houston to the woodshed throughout the season, but I'll once again pick the Houston nine to take two of three. I think Willis finally gets his first win opposite Happ, but Norris and Rodriguez rally to get the series win.

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