Since I'm tired of hearing people talk about how the Astros were wrong to trade Hunter Pence, here's my rant of the day.
Everyone keeps seeing the Philadelphia Phillies right fielder light up the scoreboard lately, and while it's true he's had a fantastic season, this doesn't discount all the other seasons Pence has had before 2011. And the point is, even if Pence had this good of numbers for four years running and wasn't becoming overly expensive with each passing year, the Astros still made out like bandits in his trading. When you take an excellent farm system like Philadelphia's, and you get their absolute best hitting prospect (Jonathan Singleton), and their absolute best pitching prospect (Jarred Cosart) for the second-best player on your club (because yes, Michael Bourn was the Astros' best player at the time), you've made an incredible deal. Forget Hunter Pence, Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez are the kind of guys you trade those type of prospects for. Heck, the Astros got better farmhands than the Royals did when they dealt Zack Greinke.
According to Baseball-Reference, hitters comparable to Pence through their age-27 season include: Bobby Higginson, Rondell White, Sam Chapman, Andre Ethier, and Aubrey Huff. Were/are those players good? Yes. Were/are any of those players great? No.
In July, I understood the "Don't trade Pence! He works harder than anyone on Earth!" people, as there were valid opinions on both sides of the coin as to whether or not management should deal him. Now, seeing the haul we got in return for him, you'd be asinine and simply a bad student of baseball to believe that the Astros were wrong in doing what they did.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
If you're not cheering for the Rays, you have no soul.
Two factoids that you may not know that illustrate just how improbable the Tampa Bay Rays' comeback was last night:
- Fangraphs reports that entering the bottom of the eighth inning at Tropicana Field, with the Rays down 7-0, they had approximately a 0.3 percent chance of winning the game. At the same time, they had about an 11% chance of making the playoffs, as the Red Sox had a 3-2 lead in Baltimore entering the bottom of the seventh.
- Dan Johnson, who hit the game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth with two balls, two strikes, and two outs is one of the worst hitters in the league. And that's an understatement. According to Fangraphs, Johnson is the second-worst hitter in the entire majors among players (including pitchers) with at least 90 plate appearances. In other words, the only person who performed worse at the plate than Johnson in 2011 was Roy Halladay. Johnson, the guy with the slash line of .108/.178/.157, the wOBA of .160, and the wRC+ of -7, sent the game into extras after his teammates had overcame a 7-0 hole in the eighth inning. You can't predict baseball.
- Fangraphs reports that entering the bottom of the eighth inning at Tropicana Field, with the Rays down 7-0, they had approximately a 0.3 percent chance of winning the game. At the same time, they had about an 11% chance of making the playoffs, as the Red Sox had a 3-2 lead in Baltimore entering the bottom of the seventh.
- Dan Johnson, who hit the game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth with two balls, two strikes, and two outs is one of the worst hitters in the league. And that's an understatement. According to Fangraphs, Johnson is the second-worst hitter in the entire majors among players (including pitchers) with at least 90 plate appearances. In other words, the only person who performed worse at the plate than Johnson in 2011 was Roy Halladay. Johnson, the guy with the slash line of .108/.178/.157, the wOBA of .160, and the wRC+ of -7, sent the game into extras after his teammates had overcame a 7-0 hole in the eighth inning. You can't predict baseball.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
The Hot Corner Debate: Paredes or Johnson?
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| Paredes has the speed. |
One of the most important decisions facing the Astros in 2012 will be the selection of their starting corner infielders. Will Carlos Lee continue to clunk around at first with Brett Wallace riding the pine? A lot of that depends on whether or not Brad Mills is still filling out the lineup cards. On the other side, is the young upstart Jimmy Paredes better suited for the job? Or should it be 2010 NL Rookie of the Year contender Chris Johnson? I decided to take a look specifically at the hot corner battle, and through the use of offensive, defensive, and baserunning metrics compiled by fangraphs.com, evaluated which guy should be manning third on Opening Day 2012.
Offense:
First, I compared both players' 2011 major league seasons at the plate. This example is a bit skewed, as Johnson (who was the starter at the hot corner until being sent down to Oklahoma City in August) has 403 plate appearances, compared to Paredes' 172. Johnson's slash line is a less-than-stellar .253/.293/.380. His wOBA in 2011 is a terrible .291, and his WAR is pretty bad too, checking in at -0.7. Johnson's wRC+ (weighted runs created) is 82. Astros fans must have been shocked by this precipitous drop-off, as Johnson posted some sexy numbers in the second half of 2010: .308/.337/.481, a wOBA of .354, a wRC+ of 120, and a respectable 1.5 WAR. Why the change? Johnson claims it's because pitchers have started to figure him out. In an interview earlier this season, CJ talked about how he used to see fastball after fastball in '10, since pitchers apparently thought he was just some young gun from AAA that they could easily overpower. Now, he claimed, they were becoming smart and starting and ending his at-bats with breaking balls. I have to admit that at the time, based upon my own observations, I agreed with him. However, the numbers tell a different story. In 2010, Johnson saw a fastball 54.2% of the time, and a curve, changeup, or slider 42.7%. In 2011, he's actually seen the fastball more, with hurlers throwing it at him 58.4% of the time. The rate at which he's seen breaking balls has actually dropped to 38.7% as well. So while I agree that CJ can't hit a curveball--especially low in the zone-- his assertation that pitchers are throwing that exclusively now is not just hyperbole, it's incorrect.
Paredes' 2011 numbers look eerily similar to those of Johnson's rookie campaign, albeit a little less impressive. Paredes' slash line is a decent .286/.322/.385, with a wOBA of .307, a wRC+ of 93, and a 0.5 WAR. One can conjecture that with more plate appearances, Paredes' figures could have rose to or surpassed those of Johnson's that put him in the NL ROY discussion. Paredes' problems lie in the fact that he has always been strikeout-prone. He's posted a 25% K rate this year, and has had one above 15% in every league since his A ball days with the Yankees. He's never been known for his power, as he's hit just two long balls in his time in Houston, and totals just 20 in his three years of minor league experience. He's also benefited from a high BABIP during his months with the 'Stros, coming in at .376. Whether that number is pure luck or is representative of his line-drive tendency will be fleshed out in 2012.
Overall, the answer lies in what kind of hitter you want at the plate. Johnson can get a ball out of the yard in a hurry, but his streakiness scares Houston management. Maybe it's just a sophomore slump, but Bill Hall showed that you can only strike out so many times before you're kaput. Paredes is more of a gap hitter, and with his speed, that can be a serious weapon. However, his power pales in comparison to Johnson's, and while CJ's best case scenario places him as a 4 or 5 hitter, Paredes can only realistically expect to be a 2, 6, or 7 guy. If the Astros are content with what Paredes has shown thus far, than it's an easy decision. But the riskier and potentially more rewarding choice is Johnson.
My pick: Johnson
Defense:
I find it rather curious that Paredes and Johnson were brought up as third basemen in the first place (and apparently so do the Houston brass, as reports say that Johnson has recently been taking a few grounders at first, not that that helps the team defensively any), as both are pretty terrible with the glove. This is readily apparent when looking at the standard statistics, as Johnson has booted 15 plays in 2011, with Paredes collecting five errors of his own. Johnson is an equal opportunity offender, totaling six fielding miscues and eight throwing errors. Conversely, Paredes appears to have purely a wild arm, as all but one of his errors have come by way of errant throw. In all, both men have ugly fielding percentages, with Johnson checking in at .937 (which is sadly a marked improvement over his 2010 number of .908) and Paredes at .952.
The advanced metrics further highlight their respective ineptitude. Johnson's DRS (defensive runs saved) is a ghastly -16, third-worst in the majors in front of only Mark Reynolds and Derek Jeter, and tied with the likes of Eric Hosmer, Starlin Castro (Starlin freakin' Castro!) and Raul Ibanez. To really put it into perspective, Pablo Sandoval (did anyone expect this?) is the leader at the hot corner with 22 DRS. Paredes is closer to the Johnson/Castro/Ibanez territory with -2 DRS. If UZR is your stat, Johnson and Paredes are pretty bad in that category too, with Johnson coming in at -13.8, tepid compared to his 150 game projection of -21.6. Paredes' UZR is -1.1, with a 150 game projection of -4.1.
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| Johnson has the pop. |
My pick: Paredes
Baserunning:
This is a pretty cut and dry comparison. Johnson never was fleet of foot, and in 2011 he's shown no improvement with just two stolen bases and two caught stealing. In all, CJ has totaled just 24 swipes in his five-year minor and major league career. To be fair, Johnson never was projected to be a speed guy, and typically, it's not exactly crucial that a corner infielder provide more than 5-10 steals per season. However, it sure can be a lethal weapon when you do have that. Paredes has five steals with the Astros this season, and though he's been caught four times as well, he also swiped 29 bags in AAA this year. Indeed, he's taken 113 total bases in just three years in the big leagues. His wheels also allow him to leg out triples, of which he had seven in split time with the Yankees' and Astros' farm systems in 2010. Paredes' Brs (Baserunning runs above average) according to Fangraphs is 0.3; Johnson's is -0.5. Paredes' 4-component speed score according to Fangraphs is 8.1; Johnson's is 4.3. It's an easy choice.
My pick: Paredes
Overall:
All in all, the Astros will have to decide what kind of player they want to start at third base. Johnson is more of the classic hot corner man: fiery, loud, a powerful bat and a penchant for big hits when needed. Paredes is the sabermetrician's dream: better in the advanced metrics, fleet of foot, smarter in the field and on the basepaths, and possessor of the ability to move guys over with a double in the gap. The kicker in the decision might be who the Houston brass peg to be the starter at first, for if Carlos Lee continues his late power surge into 2012, they might be more comfortable putting the weaker bat in the other corner infield spot. If Wallace becomes the guy and doesn't show more pop in his bat, Johnson might be called upon to provide more dingers. While the Wallace/Johnson combination didn't go as planned in '11, Ed Wade and Co. might be willing to give the guys another shot. Either way, it should be an interesting competition in spring training, but if I'm made the new general manager and/or manager, I know who I'm putting on that lineup card.
My pick: Paredes
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Game 160: Astros 5, Cardinals 4 (F/10)
For the first time in many, many weeks, the contest at Minute Maid Park on Monday night actually meant something, to one of the teams involved at least. The Astros played their spoiler role well, as they knocked off the charging Cardinals to deny them a golden opportunity to tie Atlanta for the NL wild card lead.
What went right
- Starter Wandy Rodriguez had another solid outing, going 6.1 innings while allowing 8 hits and 2 earned with 3 free passes and 2 strikeouts. While he struggled with his location throughout the game and allowed heavy traffic in most of his innings, W-Rod got outs when he needed them. The highlight of his night came in the top of the fifth when he wriggled out of a bases loaded jam by inducing a double play and striking out Albert Pujols.
- Matt Downs yet again showed that he's not just running into bad pitches, as he took St. Louis starter Jaime Garcia deep in the home half of the fourth. The ball was a no-doubter, almost hitting the train tracks, and gave the 'Stros a comfortable lead that kept them in charge of the game. It was Downs' only hit of the night, and while he misplayed a routine fly ball that contributed to the aforementioned bases loaded jam, the man provided another key hit for his team, something he's done multiple times in 2011.
- J.D. Martinez showed that Brian Bogusevic isn't the only Houston outfielder with a gun of an arm, as Martinez cut down Pujols at the plate in the third, saving what could have ended up being the winning run. A perfect one-hop throw that bounced right into the glove of backstop J.R. Towles, Pujols was out by 15 feet, and the Astros came into the home half of the inning and scored some runs of their own.
- Angel Sanchez, who hasn't seemed to be able to do anything right all year (except in April) layed down a perfect bunt to score the walk-off run in the bottom of the tenth. Bogusevic came through in the clutch again, lacing a double off of Cards reliever (and former Astro) Octavio Dotel to start the frame. Jason Bourgeois attempted to sacrifice him over to third, but both men ended up safe as Dotel misplayed the ball. Enter Sanchez, who's had ten sacrifice hits on the season, and a perfect bunt was layed down the first base line, allowing Bogu to rush home and score the walk-off, subsequently placing a dagger in the heart of the St. Louis faithful. (Ok, excuse the hyperbole).
What went wrong
- The Houston bullpen was again unable to hold the lead eked out by the starter. Fernando Rodriguez entered in the top of the eighth to face the heart of the Cards lineup, and quickly gave up a single to Pujols and a walk to Matt Holliday. He was yanked in favor of Lil' Wesley Wright, who hadn't allowed a run in his last 17 appearances. Though he was able to turn former Astro switch-hitter Lance Berkman over to his weaker right side, the "right fielder" still smacked a double off of the left field wall, scoring both baserunners and tying the game.
- Conversely, the Astros were unable to touch the St. Louis bullpen, as they were held scoreless from the fifth until the walk-off bunt. Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, and Fernando Salas all escaped their respective innings unscathed, giving up just three hits between them.
- Martinez was forced to leave the game in the fifth with a bruised left foot. He fouled a ball hard of the top of his shoe, and laid down on the ground for a couple of seconds before finishing his at-bat. Bourgeois replaced him in left, and Jordan Schafer took over center field.
What we learned
- Maybe Downs does deserve more playing time in 2012. I'm still an advocate of him being a super-platoon man, as his glove is just horrid and he's a bit of a streaky hitter, but the man has shown he has some pop and isn't afraid of big situations. It's easy to admire someone who hits dingers, but I'm hoping that managment stays smart and gives the starting spot to someone they think has a long future with the team (meaning, if Brett Wallace or Bogusevic don't start in favor of Downs, I'll be pretty miffed).
- Drayton McLane and Ed Wade (or whoever owns and GM's the Astros in 2012) need to focus on one thing in the offseason: improving their pitching. Someone from the Houston bullpen alone has been pegged with the loss in 34 games, and remember, Brandon Lyon was out for the season by May. The starting pitching situation needs to be solved first, but the bullpen is certainly the area that could use a makeover, a la 2010-2011 Arizona Diamondbacks.
What went right
- Starter Wandy Rodriguez had another solid outing, going 6.1 innings while allowing 8 hits and 2 earned with 3 free passes and 2 strikeouts. While he struggled with his location throughout the game and allowed heavy traffic in most of his innings, W-Rod got outs when he needed them. The highlight of his night came in the top of the fifth when he wriggled out of a bases loaded jam by inducing a double play and striking out Albert Pujols.
- Matt Downs yet again showed that he's not just running into bad pitches, as he took St. Louis starter Jaime Garcia deep in the home half of the fourth. The ball was a no-doubter, almost hitting the train tracks, and gave the 'Stros a comfortable lead that kept them in charge of the game. It was Downs' only hit of the night, and while he misplayed a routine fly ball that contributed to the aforementioned bases loaded jam, the man provided another key hit for his team, something he's done multiple times in 2011.
- J.D. Martinez showed that Brian Bogusevic isn't the only Houston outfielder with a gun of an arm, as Martinez cut down Pujols at the plate in the third, saving what could have ended up being the winning run. A perfect one-hop throw that bounced right into the glove of backstop J.R. Towles, Pujols was out by 15 feet, and the Astros came into the home half of the inning and scored some runs of their own.
- Angel Sanchez, who hasn't seemed to be able to do anything right all year (except in April) layed down a perfect bunt to score the walk-off run in the bottom of the tenth. Bogusevic came through in the clutch again, lacing a double off of Cards reliever (and former Astro) Octavio Dotel to start the frame. Jason Bourgeois attempted to sacrifice him over to third, but both men ended up safe as Dotel misplayed the ball. Enter Sanchez, who's had ten sacrifice hits on the season, and a perfect bunt was layed down the first base line, allowing Bogu to rush home and score the walk-off, subsequently placing a dagger in the heart of the St. Louis faithful. (Ok, excuse the hyperbole).
What went wrong
- The Houston bullpen was again unable to hold the lead eked out by the starter. Fernando Rodriguez entered in the top of the eighth to face the heart of the Cards lineup, and quickly gave up a single to Pujols and a walk to Matt Holliday. He was yanked in favor of Lil' Wesley Wright, who hadn't allowed a run in his last 17 appearances. Though he was able to turn former Astro switch-hitter Lance Berkman over to his weaker right side, the "right fielder" still smacked a double off of the left field wall, scoring both baserunners and tying the game.
- Conversely, the Astros were unable to touch the St. Louis bullpen, as they were held scoreless from the fifth until the walk-off bunt. Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, and Fernando Salas all escaped their respective innings unscathed, giving up just three hits between them.
- Martinez was forced to leave the game in the fifth with a bruised left foot. He fouled a ball hard of the top of his shoe, and laid down on the ground for a couple of seconds before finishing his at-bat. Bourgeois replaced him in left, and Jordan Schafer took over center field.
What we learned
- Maybe Downs does deserve more playing time in 2012. I'm still an advocate of him being a super-platoon man, as his glove is just horrid and he's a bit of a streaky hitter, but the man has shown he has some pop and isn't afraid of big situations. It's easy to admire someone who hits dingers, but I'm hoping that managment stays smart and gives the starting spot to someone they think has a long future with the team (meaning, if Brett Wallace or Bogusevic don't start in favor of Downs, I'll be pretty miffed).
- Drayton McLane and Ed Wade (or whoever owns and GM's the Astros in 2012) need to focus on one thing in the offseason: improving their pitching. Someone from the Houston bullpen alone has been pegged with the loss in 34 games, and remember, Brandon Lyon was out for the season by May. The starting pitching situation needs to be solved first, but the bullpen is certainly the area that could use a makeover, a la 2010-2011 Arizona Diamondbacks.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Series Preview: Playing Spoiler
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| Remember when we were both good? |
So if I had told you a few weeks ago that the Astros' last series of the season would end up being pretty meaningful, would you have laughed in my face? I would have too. But such is the beauty of September baseball, as the St. Louis Cardinals come to the Juicebox with just one game standing between them and the Atlanta Braves for the National League's wild card spot. The 'Stros/Cards rivalry may still have some life in it yet, so let's party like it's 2005 and enjoy the last series preview of 2011.
Houston Astros (55-104) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (88-71), September 26-28, Minute Maid Park
Game 1:
7:05 pm- Wandy Rodriguez (11-11, 3.51) vs. Jaime Garcia (13-7, 3.45)
Game 2:
7:05 pm- Henry Sosa (3-5, 4.68) vs. Jake Westbrook (12-9, 4.48)
Game 3:
7:05 pm- Brett Myers (7-13, 4.31) vs. Chris Carpenter (10-9, 3.59)
Rodriguez is looking to finish as the only Houston starter with a winning record in 2011. Interestingly enough, it would only be the third time in his career that he's achieved such a feat, as he finished 9-7 in '08 and 14-12 in '09. While W-Rod hasn't fared well in terms of W-L against the Lou (he's just 6-11), he does have a 3.85 lifetime ERA against the club. Garcia, like the rest of his teammates, has been on fire in September after having a horrid August. Though a carbon copy of Rodriguez in terms of road ineptitude, he's fared well in his last three road draws, but is 0-3 against Houston altogether.
Sosa has given a quality effort in five of his last six starts, but just has one win to show for it. He's only struck out 11 dudes in his last three starts, but he has never faced the Cards before, so he should hopefully be able to keep the hitters on edge. Westbrook has started channeling his inner J.A. Happ, walking at least four batters a start with startling regularity. However, his last three draws have yielded nice results, as he's gone 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA.
The finale features what, at the beginning of the season, was thought to be these two teams' respective aces. Neither have performed up to expectations, but both are finishing the year strong. Myers has won four of hist last five starts, and after starting the year as a fatter version of Bronson Arroyo, hasn't given up a long ball in that five start span. While he's no longer your older brother's Chris Carpenter, the 2011 version is 1-0 in his last three starts with a 2.05 ERA. He's been plagued by absurdly low run support, yet has struck out 48 batters in his last eight games.
PREDICTION: Why the heck not?! The Astros take the first two games of the series, as W-Rod shuts down the hot STL lineup and Sosa does just enough with a little help from his batting mates to outlast Westbrook. Myers drops the finale to Carpenter, but because Atlanta faces a Philly team resting all of its starters, the Cards are faced with the bitter reality that they lost out on the wild card spot because they couldn't handle the league's worst team.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Game 154: Reds 6, Astros 4
On a night where Homer Bailey was trying to set a career-high with his ninth win, Bud Norris was attempting to stave off a career-high eleventh loss, the Reds were looking to snap a four-game losing streak, and the Astros were simply trying to limit their number of losses, the dreary game at Great American Ballpark ended up being decided by dingers. In all, four home runs were hit, and seven of the ten runs on the board at the end of the night were there because of it.
What went right
- The Astros were able to continue their odd, season-ending power surge as J.D. Martinez and Chris Johnson both hit balls into the seats. Martinez' shot came off Bailey in the third; it was an oppo taco that just cleared the wall in right, scoring Jordan Schafer, who had walked earlier in the frame. Johnson provided the club's only other runs when he drove in Martinez with a moon shot to the second deck in left off of weirdie Bill Bray in the eighth. That ball traveled 413 feet, and it couldn't have come as a surprise to Bray, seeing as Johnson had crushed one just a few pitches earlier that ended up just foul.
- Houston batters banged out 10 hits in the game, getting six of them against Bailey. There was good traffic on the bases throughout the night, and Schafer was able to swipe his 20th bag of the season, despite missing significant time due to injury.
- Brian Bogusevic again showed off his gun of an arm in right field, cutting down Bailey at home to earn an assist. He also got a rocket off to third later in the contest, but the ball was a bit wide of the bag, and Johnson made the safe play and knocked it down instead.
What went wrong
- Norris lasted just 2.2 innings, giving up 7 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts. He was pulled after grabbing his throwing shoulder and grimacing in the middle of his duel with Paul Janish. Lucas Harrell came on in relief and got out of the frame unscathed, but didn't fare so well in the home half of the 4th, giving up a single to Bailey, a free pass to Dave Sappelt, free bases to both men via a wild pitch, and finally, a single to Jay Bruce which scored two, putting the Redlegs ahead 5-2.
- After Houston was able to pull within a run in the eighth, Wilton Lopez surrendered a bomb to the much-maligned Brandon Phillips (seriously, he's turning into the next David Eckstein for me: that guy you'd kill to have on your team, but nonetheless engenders serious hate when he's on the opposing club). Lopez hasn't exactly been a pillar of consistency this season, but he gave up the long ball at the wrong time, as it gave the Reds and Fransisco Cordero a bit more comfort going into the top of 9th.
- The Astros went just 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position, and left eight men on base in the contest.
What we learned
- While the Norris injury didn't look overly serious, it's likely that we saw his last pitch of the 2011 season, and talk about a guy who didn't deserve his record. If his stats stand, he'll end up with a 6-11 record, but his 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 4.07 FIP are stark improvements upon his career numbers. It will be interesting to see where he fits into the rotation in 2012, as he should be the second hurler in line in terms of ability if Wandy Rodriguez is still around.
- Lopez has been a bit of a disappointment this season. After posting a promising 2010 and being tossed around as a potential closer candidate in spring training, his numbers have ballooned, and he's seemed to lose confidence on the mound. Lopez' HR/9 mark is up to 0.80; it was 0.54 in 2010. While his ERA is actually lower this season (2.93 as compared to 2010's 2.96), the truth lies in the FIP, where he's nearly an entire run worse at 3.46 (2.59 in '10, ZiPS projected at 2.27 for 2011). His K/9 are up, but his BB/9 rate has risen to a scary 2.26 (remember, this guy is supposed to come in and pitch just three outs). Seeing the sorry state of the Houston bullpen, he's still one of the better relievers, and should stay in the setup role in 2012.
- Johnson continues to show flashes of brilliance with his sweet power stroke. Many have wondered if he might seriously contend with current starter Jimmy Paredes for the hot corner job in spring training, and this is one writer who thinks the competition should be open and fair. Paredes has been on a tear in September, posting a .320 BA and .333 OBP, but his slugging percentage is a laughable .340. Both men are below-average in the field, and honestly neither should be playing the third sack. Paredes probably has more upside, seeing as he is a line drive hitter and could beat Johnson in a foot race wearing flip-flops. Management will have to decide whether they want to have the guy who strokes hits but has little power, or the guy who can hit 'em a long way but strikes out a lot, and then deal whoever isn't chosen for farmhands.
Rodriguez goes up against Bronson Arroyo today at 11:35 am, needing just two K's to reach 1,000 for his career.
If you're one of the valiant few still watching the 'Stros, follow me for more commentary @tracelevos
What went right
- The Astros were able to continue their odd, season-ending power surge as J.D. Martinez and Chris Johnson both hit balls into the seats. Martinez' shot came off Bailey in the third; it was an oppo taco that just cleared the wall in right, scoring Jordan Schafer, who had walked earlier in the frame. Johnson provided the club's only other runs when he drove in Martinez with a moon shot to the second deck in left off of weirdie Bill Bray in the eighth. That ball traveled 413 feet, and it couldn't have come as a surprise to Bray, seeing as Johnson had crushed one just a few pitches earlier that ended up just foul.
- Houston batters banged out 10 hits in the game, getting six of them against Bailey. There was good traffic on the bases throughout the night, and Schafer was able to swipe his 20th bag of the season, despite missing significant time due to injury.
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| Bud Norris left early with shoulder discomfort. |
What went wrong
- Norris lasted just 2.2 innings, giving up 7 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts. He was pulled after grabbing his throwing shoulder and grimacing in the middle of his duel with Paul Janish. Lucas Harrell came on in relief and got out of the frame unscathed, but didn't fare so well in the home half of the 4th, giving up a single to Bailey, a free pass to Dave Sappelt, free bases to both men via a wild pitch, and finally, a single to Jay Bruce which scored two, putting the Redlegs ahead 5-2.
- After Houston was able to pull within a run in the eighth, Wilton Lopez surrendered a bomb to the much-maligned Brandon Phillips (seriously, he's turning into the next David Eckstein for me: that guy you'd kill to have on your team, but nonetheless engenders serious hate when he's on the opposing club). Lopez hasn't exactly been a pillar of consistency this season, but he gave up the long ball at the wrong time, as it gave the Reds and Fransisco Cordero a bit more comfort going into the top of 9th.
- The Astros went just 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position, and left eight men on base in the contest.
What we learned
- While the Norris injury didn't look overly serious, it's likely that we saw his last pitch of the 2011 season, and talk about a guy who didn't deserve his record. If his stats stand, he'll end up with a 6-11 record, but his 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 4.07 FIP are stark improvements upon his career numbers. It will be interesting to see where he fits into the rotation in 2012, as he should be the second hurler in line in terms of ability if Wandy Rodriguez is still around.
- Lopez has been a bit of a disappointment this season. After posting a promising 2010 and being tossed around as a potential closer candidate in spring training, his numbers have ballooned, and he's seemed to lose confidence on the mound. Lopez' HR/9 mark is up to 0.80; it was 0.54 in 2010. While his ERA is actually lower this season (2.93 as compared to 2010's 2.96), the truth lies in the FIP, where he's nearly an entire run worse at 3.46 (2.59 in '10, ZiPS projected at 2.27 for 2011). His K/9 are up, but his BB/9 rate has risen to a scary 2.26 (remember, this guy is supposed to come in and pitch just three outs). Seeing the sorry state of the Houston bullpen, he's still one of the better relievers, and should stay in the setup role in 2012.
- Johnson continues to show flashes of brilliance with his sweet power stroke. Many have wondered if he might seriously contend with current starter Jimmy Paredes for the hot corner job in spring training, and this is one writer who thinks the competition should be open and fair. Paredes has been on a tear in September, posting a .320 BA and .333 OBP, but his slugging percentage is a laughable .340. Both men are below-average in the field, and honestly neither should be playing the third sack. Paredes probably has more upside, seeing as he is a line drive hitter and could beat Johnson in a foot race wearing flip-flops. Management will have to decide whether they want to have the guy who strokes hits but has little power, or the guy who can hit 'em a long way but strikes out a lot, and then deal whoever isn't chosen for farmhands.
Rodriguez goes up against Bronson Arroyo today at 11:35 am, needing just two K's to reach 1,000 for his career.
If you're one of the valiant few still watching the 'Stros, follow me for more commentary @tracelevos
Monday, September 19, 2011
Series Preview: Redleg Nation
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| He was creepy earlier in the season, and he's still creepy now. |
Houston Astros (52-100) vs. Cincinnati Reds (74-79), September 19-21, Great American Ballpark
Game 1:
6:10 pm- J.A. Happ (6-15, 5.59) vs. Dontrelle Willis (0-6, 5.04)
Game 2:
6:10 pm- Bud Norris (6-10, 3.68) vs. Homer Bailey (8-7, 4.43)
Game 3:
11:35 pm- Wandy Rodriguez (11-10, 3.55) vs. Bronson Arroyo (8-12, 5.34)
Happ has seemed to figure things out since his return from Oklahoma City, as he's gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts, including giving up just one run to the mighty Phillies. He's 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA all-time against the Reds. Poor Dontrelle Willis has still not won a game, thanks to occasional bad starts, and more often than not, untimely collapses by the Cincy bullpen. He missed his last start in Milwaukee due to back spasms. He plans to start today, but if not, Travis Wood will take the ball instead.
Norris has only one win in his last dozen starts, but that might not be entirely his fault, as he's posted a decent 4.04 ERA during that span. He's given up just three earned runs in his last two starts. I'm rather shocked that Bailey has a higher ERA than Norris, but Bailey has fallen victim to the long ball this season. He's 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts, but is 3-0 with a 1.35 all-time against the 'Stros.
Rodriguez is slowly moving up the Astros' left-hander victories list, so at least there's that. After struggling against the Cubs, he's 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA and 20 Ks in his last three starts. He's been historically mediocre against the Reds, racking up a 7-8 record with a 4.26 ERA. If you though Bailey gave up a lot of gopher balls, just take a look at Arroyo. He's already given up a club-record 44 dingers this season, and is just four away from the National League record of 48 set by none other than the late Jose Lima, and six away from Bert Blyleven's major league record 50. Arroyo has pitched well against the Astros though, posting an 11-6 mark with a 4.40 ERA.
PREDICION: This Reds club really took Houston to the woodshed throughout the season, but I'll once again pick the Houston nine to take two of three. I think Willis finally gets his first win opposite Happ, but Norris and Rodriguez rally to get the series win.
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