Tuesday, August 9, 2011

So...about that team MVP award...

You may think that I'm one of those sick, obsessive fans that think about their favorite baseball team day and night, never stopping to realize that, in fact, there might be other things in life that are more important and/or more interesting. If you're so bold as to think THAT low of me, well...you'd be right. I think about the Astros' woes almost every night before I fall asleep, and last night, I had a stunning realization that required me to sit up in bed because I was laughing so hard.

Who will be named the team MVP for 2011?

If you recall, Hunter Pence ran away with the award last season, though I believe undeservedly so, as Michael Bourn's meaningful numbers certainly showed that he was more valuable to the club than Pence. However, the league MVP award itself is no model of true value measurent, as more often than not, the player with the most RBIs (scoff, scoff) in the league usually takes home the metal. So I don't really blame team execs for handing the award to Pence in 2010. He would have undoubtedly been the recipient of the award this year as well, had he not been traded to Philadelphia. Bourn would obviously be the next logical choice if he were still in an Astros uniform.

While scanning the current roster, it may be easy to point to Wandy Rodriguez as the team's most valuable player; if W-Rod stays all the way through the season and is moved over the winter, than I'll agree that he's easily the team MVP in 2011. After all, despite his paltry win-loss record (which, let's face it, doesn't reflect well at all on a pitcher's true value) Wandy is currently on pace for the third-best season of his career by way of his xFIP (3.67). He's also good for a WAR of 1.4, which is better than a lot of other clankers on the club. Seeing as Wandy's always been a feast or famine kinda guy, those are some pretty nice numbers. But most of the informed people in baseball are still positive that Rodriguez will clear waivers thanks to his hefty contract and will be dealt to a contender for some prime prospects. So if he's gone before this season mercifully ends, who will be dubbed the 2011 Houston Astros' least-least valuable player?

I'm not really sure I have the answer to this one, but let's talk it out. Obviously, the race would be limited to Clint Barmes, Carlos Lee, Bud Norris, and I guess Brett Myers. Everybody else has either been demoted or hasn't played enough games to get serious consideration. I'll be the first to strike off Lee and Myers from the ballot, even though Carlos has somewhat improved his icky triple slash line to an almost-respectable .266/.319/.428. Surprisingly, he has a higher WAR than Wandy, coasting in at 2.1. Myers has been bad, though maybe not as atrocious as everyone has thought. The stark difference between his ERA (4.76) and xFIP (3.82) highlights the serious ineptitude of the defense behind him. But sorry Brett, a miniscule 0.2 WAR isn't going to win you this race.

Norris has been solid and right in line with his ZiPS projections for 2011, posting an ERA of 3.73, which is comfortably close to his xFIP of 3.58 (you've got to assume that the xFIP will almost always be lower than the ERA, as even the best defenses make errors). His K/9 is an average 8.49, which is rather disappointing, as I could see him becoming a high strikeout guy at the beginning of the season. However, he is focusing more on getting guys out over just missing bats, which is a good sign. A 1.6 WAR is decent, but I guess since I'm starting to trend towards highest-WAR-on-the-team-gets-the-award territory, it doesn't look like Bud's done enough to cut it.

And that brings us to Clint Barmes, folks. The offseason acquisition who many decried, the guy who didn't even start on Opening Day due to an injury, the guy who couldn't hit a lick at the beginning of the season...is your 2011 team MVP. Look, in all seriousness, as much as I disliked the initial acquisition of Barmes, and while I thought it indescribably absurd that Ed Wade and Co. labeled him "unavailable" at the trading deadline, I think Barmes has honestly been one of the solid pieces on the team this year, mostly due to his above-average glovework at shortstop. I'm with ya, his triple slash line of .253/.320/.393 is underwhelming, but those numbers are pretty close to his career averages, with his OBP actually 17 point higher. He's no slugger, but he's got a respectable 2.3 WAR, and as mentioned before, he's the only sure thing in an infield full of clowns and rookies. Out of respect more than anything else, I have no problem with Clint Barmes being the 2011 Astros MVP.

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